Construction and evaluation of a fecal pollution risk prediction model for children with congenital megacolon after radical resection based on mul-tivariate analysis
10.3969/j.issn.1009-9905.2025.10.006
- VernacularTitle:基于多因素分析的先天性巨结肠患儿根治术术后污粪风险预测模型的构建及评价
- Author:
Jing TIAN
1
;
Peng ZHANG
;
Yu-min QI
;
Shu-feng SHI
;
Yan WANG
Author Information
1. 河南省南阳市中心医院 新生儿科(河南 南阳 473000)
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Hirschsprung's disease;
Postoperative fecal incontinence;
Risk prediction model;
Pediatrics/Children
- From:
Chinese Journal of Current Advances in General Surgery
2025;28(10):789-795
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:Based on multivariate analysis of the influencing factors of fecal pollution after radical re-section in children with congenital megacolon,a risk prediction model was constructed and evaluated.Methods:A total of 200 children with Hirschsprung's disease who underwent radical surgery at Nanyang Central Hospital of Henan Province from June 2020 to June 2023 were selected,and all children were followed up for 1 year.According to the occurrence of postoperative fecal incontinence,the children were divided into the non-occurrence group and the oc-currence group.Univariate Logistic regression analysis was performed on all possible influencing factors,and the back-ward stepwise regression method was used to screen out the relevant factors affecting postoperative fecal inconti-nence in children with Hirschsprung's disease after radical surgery.A risk prediction model was constructed based on these relevant factors,and its efficacy was verified using calibration curves,the Hosmer-Lemeshow test,and ROC curves.Results:Postoperative fecal incontinence occurred in 19.50%(39/200)of the children.A statistically signifi-cant difference was observed between the non-occurrence group and the occurrence group in terms of the following data(P＜0.05):age,preoperative nutritional support,need for auxiliary defecation before surgery,length of the dis-eased intestinal segment,educational level of caregivers,preoperative hypoproteinemia,resection range,postoperative diet compliance of the children,postoperative defecation training of the children,postoperative enterocolitis,and post-operative anal dilatation therapy.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that preoperative nutritional support,need for auxiliary defecation before surgery,length of the diseased intestinal segment,educational level of caregivers,postoperative diet compliance of the children,postoperative defecation training of the children,postoperative entero-colitis,and postoperative anal dilatation therapy were all independent influencing factors for postoperative fecal inconti-nence in children with Hirschsprung's Disease after radical surgery(P＜0.05).Among these factors,the educational level of caregivers was the strongest predictor of postoperative fecal incontinence in children with Hirschsprung's dis-ease after radical surgery.Results of the calibration curve showed that the concordance index of the risk prediction model for postoperative fecal incontinence in children with Hirschsprung's Disease after radical surgery was 0.837.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test results indicated no statistically significant difference between the predicted values and the actual values of risk prediction(P＜0.05),suggesting that the model had a good fit and high prediction accuracy.Re-sults of the ROC curve showed that the area under the curve(AUC)of the risk prediction model for predicting postop-erative fecal incontinence in children with Hirschsprung's Disease after radical surgery was 0.887(95%CI:0.762～1.000,P＜0.05),with a sensitivity of 0.914,a specificity of 0.763,and a Youden index of 0.677.These findings indicate that the risk prediction model has moderate discriminative ability and good predictive performance.Conclusion:Preop-erative nutritional support,need for auxiliary defecation before surgery,length of the diseased intestinal segment,edu-cational level of caregivers,postoperative diet compliance of children,postoperative defecation training of children,postoperative enterocolitis,and postoperative anal dilatation therapy are all independent influencing factors for postop-erative fecal incontinence in children with Hirschsprung's disease after radical surgery.The risk prediction model for postoperative fecal incontinence in children with Hirschsprung's disease after radical surgery,established based on multivariate analysis,is helpful for early identification of high-risk groups and timely implementation of individualized in-tervention measures.
