The disability levels and characteristics of the elderly population in China:Assessment and prediction based on Multiple Data Sources
10.3969/j.issn.1674-2982.2025.08.001
- VernacularTitle:中国老年人口的失能水平与特征
- Author:
Hang-kong ZHANG
1
;
Hui-min XU
;
Ye-sheng LUO
Author Information
1. 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心 北京 100872;中国人民大学健康中国研究院 北京 100872
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Older adults;
ADL;
Disability;
Sampling survey
- From:
Chinese Journal of Health Policy
2025;18(8):1-9
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:Accurately grasping the disability levels and characteristics of the elderly population in China is of significant importance for responding effectively to the care service needs of this demographic.Methods:Based on multi-wave data(2011-2023)from three nationally representative aging-related surveys CLHLS,CHARLS and CALSS,this study assessed,compared,and predicted the disability levels and characteristics of China's elderly population.Results:Direct estimates from existing survey data showed low reliability.Integrated multi-source projections indicate that the disability rate among China's population aged 65 and older will follow a phased upward trend,ranging approximately between 12.27%and 15.05%from 2025 to 2050,with the disabled elderly population growing continuously from 25.9 million to 58.64 million.Bathing,toileting,and dressing were the three activities with the highest disability rates.Discussion and Suggestions:Future efforts should focus on improving the construction of an elderly capacity assessment system and addressing the shortage of high-quality disability data.Research should emphasize the evaluation process of item-specific disability among older adults.It is essential to grasp the phased characteristics of changes in disability levels and identify critical windows of opportunity for response.Based on the item-specific disability characteristics of older adults,the focus of elderly care services,facilities,and product supply should be accurately targeted.
