Construction of a Nomogram Model for Predicting Neonatal Pneumonia Complicated with Myocardial Damage Based on Serum Th1/Th2 Cytokines and Clinical Indicators
10.3969/j.issn.1671-7414.2025.05.020
- VernacularTitle:基于血清Th1/Th2细胞因子及临床指标构建预测新生儿肺炎并发心肌损害列线图模型
- Author:
Qiuhong HE
1
;
Sheng REN
;
Li ZHANG
;
Liang ZOU
;
Xingyang LI
Author Information
1. 绵阳市人民医院儿科,四川 绵阳 621000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
neonatal pneumonia;
myocardial damage;
Th1/Th2 cytokines;
clinical indicators;
nomogram model
- From:
Journal of Modern Laboratory Medicine
2025;40(5):107-112,130
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the influencing factors of neonatal pneumonia complicated with myocardial damage and Th1/Th2 cytokines,and construct a line chart model.Methods A total of 390 neonates with pneumonia who were treated in Mianyang People's Hospital were selected as the study subjects and randomly divided into a modeling cohort(n=273)and a validation cohort(n=117)according to a 7∶3 ratio.They were further divided into myocardial damage group and non-myocardial damage group according to whether they had concurrent myocardial damage.Enzyme linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA)was used to measure Th1/Th2 cytokines(IFN-γ,IL-6,TNF-α,IL-4,IL-2 and IL-10),and the Mindray BS-280 automatic biochemical analyzer was used to measure hs-cTn I,CK-MB,LDH and CK.Logistic regression equation was used to screen the influencing factors of neonatal pneumonia complicated with myocardial damage.R software was used to construct a line chart model,and the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)and area under the ROC curve(AUC)were used to analyze the predictive ability of the model.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was used,and a calibration curve was drawn to evaluate the calibration of the model.The decision curve analysis(DCA)was used to evaluate the clinical effectiveness.Results The incidence of myocardial damage in 390 neonates with pneumonia was 28.21%.Modeling cohort and validetion cohort,the 1min Apgar score in the myocardial damage group was lower than that in the non-myocardial damage group(t=3.314,2.619),and CK-MB,LDH,CK,hs-cTnI,IL-2,IFN-γ,TNF-α,IL-6,IL-10 and IL-4 were higher than those in the non-myocardial damage group(t=5.805～18.914),and the proportions of severe pneumonia,low birthweight infant,premature infants were higher than those in the non-myocardial damage group(χ2=4.464～41.497),and the differences were statistically significant(all P<0.05),respectively.The Logistic regression equation showed that low birth weight,1-minute Apgar score,premature birth,hs-cTnI,IL-2,IFN-γ,IL-6 and IL-4 were factors affecting neonatal pneumonia complicated with myocardial damage(Wald χ2=10.330～14.328,all P<0.05).The AUC(95%CI)of the nomogram model constructed based on the factors affecting neonatal pneumonia complicated with myocardial damage was 0.880(0.839～0.921)in the modeling cohort and 0.910(0.856～0.964)in the validation cohort,with slopes of the calibration curves close to 1,and the clinical net benefit rate was the highest in the ranges of 0.1～0.8 and 0.0～0.7.Conclusion The nomogram model,which includes Th1/Th2 cytokines,hs-cTnI,1-minute Apgar score,premature infants and low-birth-weight infants has high predictive value for neonatal pneumonia complicated with myocardial damage.It can help clinicians identify high-risk populations,take reasonable diagnostic and treatment measures,and reduce the risk of myocardial damage.
