Construction of a predictive model for futile recanalization after endovascular treatment in patients with acute anterior circulation large vessel occlusion stroke
10.3969/j.issn.1672-5921.2025.10.004
- VernacularTitle:急性前循环大血管闭塞性脑梗死患者血管内治疗后无效再通的预测模型构建
- Author:
Yafeng SHEN
1
;
Deyou XUE
;
Haoxiang XU
;
Derang JIAO
Author Information
1. 300121 天津市人民医院(南开大学第一附属医院)神经外科
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Acute cerebral infarction;
Anterior circulation large vessel occlusion;
Endovascular treatment;
Futile recanalization;
Prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Cerebrovascular Diseases
2025;22(10):690-700
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To construct a predictive model for futile recanalization after endovascular treatment in patients with acute anterior circulation large vessel occlusion stroke and evaluate its predictive efficacy.Methods Patients with acute stroke caused by anterior circulation large vessel occlusion who underwent endovascular treatment with successful vascular recanalization(modified thrombolysis in cerebral infarction[mTICI]grade 2b or 3)admitted to the Department of Neurosurgery of Tianjin Union Medical Center(the First Affiliated Hospital of Nankai University)from January 2022 to January 2025 were retrospectively and consecutively included.Patients were divided into effective recanalization group(modified Rankin scale[mRS]score≤2)and futile recanalization group(mRS score＞2)according to the mRS score at 90 days after endovascular treatment.Baseline and clinical data were collected,including sex,age,medical history(stroke history,hypertension,diabetes mellitus,atrial fibrillation),personal history(smoking history,alcohol consumption history),and National Institutes of Health stroke scale(NIHSS)score,blood pressure,blood glucose,total cholesterol,triglycerides,high-density lipoprotein cholesterol,low-density lipoprotein cholesterol,creatinine,neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio,fibrinogen,D-dimer,lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio,white blood cell count,hemoglobin,albumin,C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio,platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio at admission.Imaging data including culprit vessel(middle cerebral artery,anterior cerebral artery,internal carotid artery),Alberta stroke program early CT score(ASPECTS),infarct core volume,hypoperfusion area volume,mismatch volume between infarct core and hypoperfusion area,American Society of Interventional and Therapeutic Neuroradiology/Society of Interventional Radiology(ASITN/SIR)collateral circulation grading,trial of Org 10172 in acute stroke treatment(TOAST)classification.Surgery-related data including onset-to-puncture time,successful puncture-to-vascular recanalization time,immediate postoperative mTICI grade,complications within 24 hours postoperatively(fever,hemorrhagic transformation,symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage),immediate postoperative mTICI grade.Factors with P＜0.05 and without multicollinearity(variance inflation factor≥5)in univariate analysis were included in multivariate Logistic regression model analysis to analyze independent influencing factors for futile recanalization after endovascular treatment in patients with acute anterior circulation large vessel occlusion stroke.A nomogram prediction model was constructed based on statistically significant factors in multivariate Logistic regression analysis,and Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to assess the goodness of fit of the model.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve of the nomogram prediction model for predicting futile recanalization after endovascular treatment in patients with anterior circulation large vessel occlusion stroke was drawn,and calibration curve was used to evaluate the calibration of the nomogram prediction model.Results A total of 187 patients who met the criteria of this study were included,comprising 101 males and 86 females,aged 42-85 years,with a mean age of(70±6)years.The mRS scores at 90days after treatment were:0points in 21 cases(11.23%),1 point in 37 cases(19.79%),2 points in 28 cases(14.97%),3 points in 46 cases(24.60%),4 points in 31 cases(16.58%),5 points in 24 cases(12.83%),and 6 points in 0case.There were 86cases in the effective recanalization group and 101 cases in the futile recanalization group.(1)Statistically significant differences between the two groups were observed in age,atrial fibrillation,infarct core volume,admission NIHSS score,neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio,lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio,and C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio(all P＜0.05).(2)Multicollinearity analysis showed that the variance inflation factors of all independent variables with statistically significant differences in univariate analysis were all＜5,indicating no multicollinearity.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age(OR,1.101,95%CI 1.046-1.158,P=0.037),infarct core volume(OR,1.350,95%CI 1.202-1.517,P＜0.01),admission NIHSS score(OR,1.501,95%CI 1.213-1.858,P＜0.01),lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio(OR,0.039,95%CI 0.009-0.179,P＜0.01),and C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio(OR,6.015,95%CI 1.625-22.257,P=0.007)were independent influencing factors for futile recanalization after endovascular treatment in patients with acute anterior circulation large vessel occlusion stroke.(3)The receiver operating characteristic curve of the nomogram prediction model for futile recanalization after endovascular treatment in patients with acute anterior circulation large vessel occlusion stroke was constructed based on statistically significant factors in multivariate analysis showed a specificity of 0.970,sensitivity of 0.895,precision of 0.916,recall of 0.970,and area under the curve of 0.979(95%CI0.962-0.996,P＜0.01).The absolute mean error of the calibration curve was 0.008,with predicted values close to actual values.Hosmer-Lemeshow test results showed that the model had good consistency without overfitting(χ2=4.830,P=0.776).Conclusions Age,infarct core volume,admission NIHSS score,lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio,and C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio are all independent influencing factors for futile recanalization after endovascular treatment in acute anterior circulation large vessel occlusion stroke.The nomogram prediction model constructed accordingly can predict the risk of futile recanalization after endovascular treatment in patients with anterior circulation large vessel occlusion stroke.
