Epidemic characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering analysis of anthrax in Naqu City, Tibet Autonomous Region from 2019 to 2023
10.3760/cma.j.cn231583-20250514-00181
- VernacularTitle:2019—2023年西藏自治区那曲市炭疽流行特征及时空聚集性分析
- Author:
Qing DUAN
1
;
Lijie ZHANG
Author Information
1. 西藏自治区那曲市疾病预防控制中心卫生监测科，那曲 852000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Anthrax;
Epidemic characteristics;
Spatiotemporal clustering;
Prevention and control strategies
- From:
Chinese Journal of Endemiology
2025;44(11):884-889
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the epidemic patterns and spatiotemporal clustering characteristics of anthrax in Naqu City, Tibet Autonomous Region, and to provide a scientific basis for optimizing prevention and control strategies.Methods:Data on anthrax cases in Naqu City from January 2019 to December 2023 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Descriptive epidemic methods, combined with Geographic Information System software (ArcGIS 10.8) and spatiotemporal scan analysis software (SaTScan 9.5), were employed. By using three-dimensional trend analysis, spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran's I for global spatial autocorrelation and LISA cluster maps for local spatial autocorrelation) and spatiotemporal clustering detection method, the epidemic features and spatiotemporal distribution patterns were analyzed. Results:From 2019 to 2023, a total of 95 anthrax cases were reported in Naqu City, all of which were cutaneous anthrax, with an average annual reported incidence rate of 3.73 per 100 000. The population distribution was more common in individuals aged 30 to 44 (48 cases, 50.53%), males (78 cases, 82.11%), and herders (90 cases, 94.74%). The number of reported cases showed a distinct seasonality, with a cumulative proportion of 50.53% (48/95) from June to October. The regional distribution was characterized as "high in the central-western region, higher in the south and lower in the north." The average annual incidence rate in Shenzha and Lhari Counties was > 20.00 per 100 000. Significant spatial autocorrelation was observed for the years 2020, 2022, and the five-year average annual incidence rate (Moran's I = 0.119 - 0.183, P < 0.001). Spatiotemporal scan analysis identified three clusters [ Relative Risk ( RR) = 26.98 - 165.60], corresponding to the southwestern and central regions during the rainy season (July - August) and the peak slaughtering period (September - October). Conclusions:The incidence of cutaneous anthrax in Naqu City is concentrated in the central-western pastoral areas, driven by multiple factors such as rainfall, intensive animal husbandry, and weak awareness of protection among herdsmen. It is necessary to establish a meteorological animal husbandry monitoring and early warning model, standardize the harmless treatment of diseased and dead livestock, strengthen Tibetan language education and economic compensation, and achieve precise prevention and control.
