Epidemic characteristics and spatial clustering analysis of visceral leishmaniasis in Shaanxi Province from 2012 to 2024
10.3760/cma.j.cn231583-20250221-00064
- VernacularTitle:2012—2024年陕西省内脏利什曼病流行特征及空间聚集性分析
- Author:
Luqian ZHANG
1
;
Fengping WANG
;
Lin MA
;
Shengzhen LI
;
Yunpeng NIAN
;
Shaoqi NING
;
Shu WANG
Author Information
1. 陕西省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所，西安 710000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Visceral leishmaniasis;
Joinpoint regression analysis;
Spatial cluster analysis
- From:
Chinese Journal of Endemiology
2025;44(10):815-820
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics and trends of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Shaanxi Province, and provide a basis for formulating control strategies.Methods:The information on VL cases in Shaanxi Province from January 2012 to December 2024 were obtained from the Shaanxi Provincial Infectious Disease Reporting Management System, and demographic data were collected from the Shaanxi Statistical Yearbook. Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the prevalence and the distribution by the three dimensions (time, region, and population). Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software and Geoda 1.6 software were used for regression analysis and spatial clustering analysis, respectively. SuperMap 8C software was used for visualization.Results:From January 2012 to December 2024, a total of 304 cases of VL were reported in Shaanxi Province, with an annual incidence rate of 0.06/100 000. VL cases occurred in all months of the year in Shaanxi Province with no significant seasonality, yet the onset was predominantly concentrated from April to August(52.30%, 159/304). The majority of cases were male (61.51%, 187/304), aged 5 months to 4 years (17.11%, 52/304), and farmers (67.11%, 204/304). A total of 54 districts (counties, cities) of 10 cities in the province had reported cases, mainly concentrated in Weinan City (49.34%, 150/304). Joinpoint regression analysis revealed a significant overall upward trend in the VL incidence rate in Shaanxi Province from 2012 to 2024 [average annual percent change (AAPC) = 12.60%, 95% confidence interval ( CI): 6.01% - 19.62%, t = 3.95, P < 0.001]. The year 2020 was identified as a turning point in the trend. The incidence rate showed a rapid upward trend from 2012 to 2020 [annual percent change (APC) = 23.75%, 95% CI: 13.33% - 35.12%, t = 5.62, P < 0.001]. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated significant positive spatial autocorrelation in VL incidence in 2012, 2014, 2015, 2018, and 2022 (Moran's I > 0, Z > 1.96, P < 0.05). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis identified 12 "high-high" clustering areas from 2012 to 2024, mainly located in Shangluo City in southern Shaanxi Province, and Weinan City and Yan'an City in northern Shaanxi Province. Conclusions:From 2012 to 2024, VL cases in Shaanxi Province are predominantly male farmers. The incidence of VL shows an overall upward trend, with significant spatial clustering. The prevention and control situation is severe. It is imperative to strengthen control measures, including vector disinfection and health education, to effectively control the spread and transmission of VL.
