Epidemic characteristics and temporal-spatial trends of human anthrax in Shaanxi Province from 1955 to 2024
10.3760/cma.j.cn231583-20250403-00114
- VernacularTitle:1955—2024年陕西省人间炭疽流行特征及时空变化趋势分析
- Author:
Guojing YANG
1
;
Shu WANG
1
;
Xinxin LI
1
;
Mengyan ZHANG
1
;
Yunpeng NIAN
1
Author Information
1. 陕西省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所，西安 710054
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Anthrax;
Epidemic characteristics;
Joinpoint regression;
Spatial aggregation
- From:
Chinese Journal of Endemiology
2025;44(10):809-814
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To learn about the epidemic characteristics and temporal-spatial trends of human anthrax in Shaanxi Province, and to provide a theoretical basis for prevention and control of anthrax.Methods:The epidemic data of human anthrax in Shaanxi Province from 1955 to 2024 were collected for descriptive epidemiological analysis. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of anthrax incidence rate. The trend at all times and different intervals were estimated by average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC), respectively. Based on the number of human anthrax cases in each county (district) of Shaanxi Province from 1980 to 2024, datasets were constructed in segments every five years for global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis.Results:From 1955 to 2024, a total of 3 900 cases of human anthrax were reported in Shaanxi Province, with 124 deaths. The average annual incidence rate was 0.18/100 000 and the fatality rate was 3.18%. The incidence rate of human anthrax generally showed a downward trend (AAPC = - 3.21, t = - 1.99, P = 0.044), with the fastest decline rate from 1977 to 1993 (APC = - 15.24, t = - 4.08, P < 0.001). A temporal and regional distribution analysis was conducted on 484 human anthrax cases in Shaanxi Province from 1980 to 2024. The peak period of incidence was from July to September, accounting for 52.27% (253/484). The cities with a relatively high number of reported cases were Weinan City (201 cases), Xianyang City (161 cases), and Xi'an City (77 cases), accounting for a total of 90.70% (439/484). A population distribution analysis was conducted on 93 human anthrax cases in Shaanxi Province from 2005 to 2024, with 73 males (78.49%) and 20 females (21.51%), resulting in a male to female ratio of 3.65 ∶ 1.00. The age range was 13 to 79 years old, with a median of 44 years old. The age group of 35 to 59 years old had a higher case of the disease, accounting for 65.59% (61/93). Farmers were the main occupation, accounting for 87.10% (81/93). The shortest time interval between onset and diagnosis of 93 human anthrax cases was 0 days, the longest was 47 days, and the median was 5 days. The results of global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was spatial positive correlation in human anthrax cases from 1980 to 1984, 1985 to 1989, 2000 to 2004, and 2020 to 2024 (global Moran's I > 0, Z > 1.96, P < 0.05). The results of local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the high-high aggregation area of human anthrax cases was concentrated in the Guanzhong region. Conclusions:From 1955 to 2024, the incidence rate of human anthrax in Shaanxi Province generally shows a downward trend. The peak period of incidence is from July to September, and the affected populations are mainly middle-aged male farmers. Human anthrax cases from 1980 to 1984, 1985 to 1989, 2000 to 2004 and 2020 to 2024 show spatial clustering, with high-high clustering areas concentrated in the Guanzhong region.
