Spatial aggregation of human brucellosis in Zhongwei City, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, 2018 - 2023
10.3760/cma.j.cn231583-20240927-00356
- VernacularTitle:2018—2023年宁夏回族自治区中卫市人间布鲁氏菌病空间聚集性分析
- Author:
He JI
1
;
Jiuling WANG
;
Hongju DUAN
;
Jiao FAN
Author Information
1. 中卫市疾病预防控制中心职业健康监督监测科，中卫 755000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Brucellosis;
Spatial aggregation;
Prediction and early warning;
Time series
- From:
Chinese Journal of Endemiology
2025;44(10):804-808
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the incidence and spatial distribution characteristics of human brucellosis in Zhongwei City, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, and predict its incidence trend, so as to provide a theoretical basis for early prevention and control of brucellosis.Methods:Using a retrospective study method, case data of human brucellosis reported in Zhongwei City from 2018 to 2023 were collected from the "Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System of China Disease Prevention and Control Information System". Spatial clustering analysis was conducted using ArcGIS 10.8 software. A fitting equation with month as the time series was established, and variable values were calculated based on the fitted values using moving averages, standard deviations, etc., to predict and warn of disease trends.Results:From 2018 to 2023, 3 978 brucellosis cases were reported in Zhongwei City, with an average annual incidence rate of 57.93/100 000. The incidence rate increased year by year (χ 2trend = 638.33, P < 0.001). The results of spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the global Moran's I of the incidence rate of brucellosis in Zhongwei City from 2018 to 2023 were 0.042 9 ( P > 0.05), - 0.095 5 ( P > 0.05), 0.021 6 ( P > 0.05), 0.094 5 ( P > 0.05), 0.236 1 ( P < 0.05), and 0.164 1 ( P > 0.05), respectively. From 2020 to 2023, there were "high-high" clustering areas of brucellosis incidence rate, mainly distributed in the central part of Zhongwei City, including Hanjiaoshui Township and Xutao Township in Zhongning County, and Xiangshan Township and Xuanhe Town in Shapotou District. The time series analysis results showed that the peak of human brucellosis incidence in Zhongwei City in 2024 was from May to August, with predicted cases of 109, 114, 111, and 105, respectively. Conclusions:From 2018 to 2023, the reported incidence rate of brucellosis in Zhongwei City is on the rise year by year. Health education should be strengthened in clustering towns before the month of high incidence of brucellosis.
