Spatial-temporal patterns of marmot density in plague foci of Himalayan marmot: a case study of Yarlung Zangbo River, Lhasa River and Nyangqu River Region
10.3760/cma.j.cn231583-20240408-00090
- VernacularTitle:喜马拉雅旱獭鼠疫疫源地旱獭密度时空格局分析——以一江两河地区为例
- Author:
Hui CHENG
1
;
Hongyan REN
Author Information
1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 地理信息科学与技术全国重点实验室，北京 100101
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Plague;
Himalayan marmot;
Regression model;
Spatial-temporal patterns
- From:
Chinese Journal of Endemiology
2025;44(9):695-702
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To learn about the distribution characteristics of marmot in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Himalayan marmot plague foci, and to study the spatial-temporal patterns and variation characteristics of Himalayan marmot density in the Yarlung Zangbo River, Lhasa River and Nyangqu River Region. Methods:The density survey data of Himalayan marmot from 2001 to 2019 in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were collected from the Tibet Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and the habitat characteristic data of Himalayan marmot were collected from the database of the Resource and Environmental Science Data Platform of Chinese Academy of Sciences and other relevant institutions. Based on the density survey data of Himalayan marmot and its habitat characteristics, five regression models were constructed. The best regression model was selected by comparing the accuracy indicators [root-mean-square error ( RMSE), coefficient of determination ( R 2), mean absolute error ( MAE), and mean bias error ( MBE)]. The habitat characteristics of Himalayan marmot at the basin scale from 2001 to 2019 were included in the best regression model to analyze the spatial-temporal pattern of the density of Himalayan marmot, and the hotspot analysis was used to analyze the aggregation pattern of the density of Himalayan marmot. Results:In the constructed regression models, the random forest regression model had high accuracy, with RMSE of 0.05, R 2 of 0.65, MAE of 0.02, and MBE of 0.01. Among the characteristics of various habitats, the contribution of average temperature was the highest, at 0.85. The prediction results of the random forest regression model showed that the density distribution of Himalayan marmot at the basin scale was basically similar in different years, and the overall spatial distribution characteristics were "high in the north, low in the south" and "high in the east and west, low in the middle". The northwest of Xietongmen County, the northeast of Maizhokunggar County, and the north of Namling County were hotspot area. Conclusions:The distribution of Himalayan marmot in the Yarlung Zangbo River, Lhasa River and Nyangqu River Region has obvious spatial aggregation, and the high-density aggregation areas of Himalayan marmot in different years are basically similar. It is necessary to continue to monitor the density of Himalayan marmot and strengthen the prevention and control of plague.
