A New Coronavirus Estimation Global Score for Predicting Mortality During Hospitalization in Patients with COVID-19
10.1097/CD9.0000000000000052
- VernacularTitle:A New Coronavirus Estimation Global Score for Predicting Mortality During Hospitalization in Patients with COVID-19
- Author:
Hesong ZENG
1
;
Xingwei HE
;
Wanjun LIU
;
Jing KAN
;
Liqun HE
;
Jinhe ZHAO
;
Cynthia CHEN
;
Junjie ZHANG
;
Shaoliang CHEN
Author Information
1. Division of Cardiology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei 430030, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Hospital mortality;
Coronavirus estimation global score;
COVID-19;
Goodness-of-fit;
Receiver operating characteristics;
Risk stratification
- From:
Cardiology Discovery
2022;02(2):69-76
- CountryChina
- Language:English
-
Abstract:
Objective::Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) exists as a pandemic. Mortality during hospitalization is multifactorial, and there is urgent need for a risk stratification model to predict in-hospital death among COVID-19 patients. Here we aimed to construct a risk score system for early identification of COVID-19 patients at high probability of dying during in-hospital treatment.Methods::In this retrospective analysis, a total of 821 confirmed COVID-19 patients from 3 centers were assigned to developmental ( n = 411, between January 14, 2020 and February 11, 2020) and validation ( n = 410, between February 14, 2020 and March 13, 2020) groups. Based on demographic, symptomatic, and laboratory variables, a new Coronavirus estimation global (CORE-G) score for prediction of in-hospital death was established from the developmental group, and its performance was then evaluated in the validation group. Results::The CORE-G score consisted of 18 variables (5 demographics, 2 symptoms, and 11 laboratory measurements) with a sum of 69.5 points. Goodness-of-fit tests indicated that the model performed well in the developmental group ( H = 3.210, P = 0.880), and it was well validated in the validation group ( H = 6.948, P= 0.542). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.955 in the developmental group (sensitivity, 94.1%; specificity, 83.4%) and 0.937 in the validation group (sensitivity, 87.2%; specificity, 84.2%). The mortality rate was not significantly different between the developmental ( n = 85,20.7%) and validation ( n = 94, 22.9%, P = 0.608) groups. Conclusions::The CORE-G score provides an estimate of the risk of in-hospital death. This is the first step toward the clinical use of the CORE-G score for predicting outcome in COVID-19 patients.
