Analysis of Risk Factors for Early Relapse/Progression in Patients with Multiple Myeloma and Development of a Nomogram Predic-tion Model
10.19746/j.cnki.issn1009-2137.2025.06.016
- VernacularTitle:多发性骨髓瘤早期复发/进展的危险因素分析及列线图预测模型的建立
- Author:
Mei-Jiao HUANG
1
;
Yu LIU
1
;
Hong-Yan WANG
1
;
Tai-Ran CHEN
1
;
Xing-Li ZOU
1
Author Information
1. 川北医学院附属医院血液内科,四川南充 637000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
multiple myeloma;
early relapse/progression;
prediction model;
nomogram
- From:
Journal of Experimental Hematology
2025;33(6):1655-1661
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the potential risk factors for early relapse/progression in patients with multiple myeloma(MM)and develop a risk prediction model based on these factors.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on 187 newly diagnosed multiple myeloma(NDMM)patients who treated at the Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College from February 2014 to December 2020.The clinical,laboratory examination,and follow-up data of patients experiencing relapse/progression within 24 months after treatment(ER/EP24)were analyzed using univariate and multivariate analyses,and a nomogram prediction model was established.Results:Among the 187 patients,58(31.0％)experienced ER/EP24,with a median survival time of only 24 months.The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that failure to achieve partial response(PR)or better after 3-4 cycles of chemotherapy and albumin(ALB)levels＜35 g/L were independent risk factors for ER/EP24(P＜0.05).These factors,along with other clinically relevant variables,were further incorporated into the nomogram prediction model.The model demonstrated a concordance index(C-index)of 0.784,indicating strong predictive accuracy.Conclusion:MM patients experiencing ER/EP24 exhibit poor outcome,and the nomogram model developed in this study effectively predicts the risk of ER/EP24 in NDMM patients,providing a valuable tool for clinical risk assessment.
