Predictive model for colorectal cancer transformation diagnosis based on multimodal ultrasound parameters and clinical indicators
10.3969/j.issn.1009-9905.2025.01.004
- VernacularTitle:基于多模态超声参数及临床指标的结直肠癌变诊断的预测模型
- Author:
Xiang-an MENG
1
;
Yong-xin HAO
;
Yun LUO
;
Yang LI
;
Xiao-lin HAN
Author Information
1. 河北中石油中心医院超声医学科(河北 廊坊 065000)
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Colorectal neoplasms;
Multimodal ultrasound;
Influencing factors;
Prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Current Advances in General Surgery
2025;28(1):17-22
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To construct a predictive model for benign and malignant colorectal lesions based on modal ultrasound parameters and clinical indicators,and evaluate the effectiveness of the predictive model.Methods:Clinical data of 198 patients with colorectal lesions treated in Hebei Petro China Central Hospital from March 2020 to March 2024 were recorded.According to pathological diagnosis,they were grouped into a benign lesion group of 102 cases and a malignant lesion group of 96 cases.All patients underwent multimodal ultrasound examination.Multivariate Logistic re-gression analysis was applied to screen the influencing factors of colorectal cancer progression.R software package was applied to build a nomogram prediction model.Hosmer-Lemeshow test,calibration curve,ROC curve,and clinical deci-sion curve were used for validation.Results:There were statistically obvious differences in internal echo,morphology,blood flow signal,rise time(RT),contrast agent of"fast in and fast out",mean Young's modulus(Emean),age,positive fecal occult blood,and polyps between the benign and malignant lesion groups(P＜0.05).Uneven internal echoes,irregu-lar shapes,abundant blood flow signals,contrast agent of"fast in and fast out",age ≥ 60 years,positive fecal occult blood,and polyps ≥ 2 were independent risk factors for colorectal cancer(P＜0.05),while RT is a protective factor for colorectal cancer(P＜0.05).The internal validation results of the nomogram prediction model showed that the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed x2=3.661 and P=0.886.The calibration curve showed that the actual probability was basically consistent with the predicted probability,and the AUC of the ROC curve was 0.802(95％CI:0.732-0.871),indicating that the calibration and discrimination of the column chart prediction model were good.Within the high-risk threshold range of 0.28-0.98,the decision curve was above the All line and None line,indicating a high net benefit and clinical practicality.Conclusion:Internal echo,morphology,blood flow signal,contrast agent of"fast in and fast out",age,positive fecal occult blood,polyps,and RT are influencing factors for the occurrence of colorectal cancer.The column chart prediction model constructed based on this has good predictive performance and provides reference for early inter-vention by clinical physicians.
