Influencing factors of recurrence after gallbladder stones combine with common bile duct multiple stones and establishment and verification of nomogram prediction model
10.3969/j.issn.1009-9905.2025.01.001
- VernacularTitle:胆囊结石合并胆总管多发结石术后复发的影响因素及列线图预测模型的建立与验证
- Author:
Peng LIU
1
;
Fu-cheng LIU
1
;
Xin ZHAO
1
;
Hai-peng QIAO
1
;
Xiao-feng LIU
1
;
Zheng YANG
1
Author Information
1. 北京丰台医院 普通外科(北京 100071)
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Gallstones;
Multiple stones in the common bile duct;
Postoperative recurrence of common bile duct stones;
Nomogram prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Current Advances in General Surgery
2025;28(1):1-6
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:Analyze the influencing factors of postoperative recurrence of common bile duct stones in patients with gallstones and multiple common bile duct stones,and evaluate the application value of nomogram predic-tion models.Methods:Collected clinical data of 587 patients with gallstones and multiple common bile duct stones who underwent surgical treatment at Beijing Fengtai Hospital from January 2022 to January 2024.They were divided into a training cohort(n=410)and a validation cohort(n=177)according to a 7∶3 ratio.Analyzed the influencing factors of postoperative recurrence of common bile duct stones in patients with gallstones and multiple common bile duct stones,and constructed a nomogram prediction model based on this.Results:The recurrence rate of postoperative common bile duct stones in the training queue was 38.05％(156/410).Age,BMI,intrahepatic bile duct stones,initial course of dis-ease,duodenal diverticulum,biliary tract infection,history of biliary surgery,thickness of the common bile duct wall,num-ber of multiple stones in the common bile duct,diameter of the common bile duct,and dysfunction of the Oddis sphincter in the duodenal papilla during ERCP examination are independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence in patients with gallbladder stones combined with multiple stones in the common bile duct(P＜0.05).The AUC of the constructed nomo-gram prediction model in the training queue and validation queue were 0.854 and 0.889,respectively.The Hosmer Lem-eshow fitting test results showed that there was no statistically significant difference between the predicted probability and the actual probability of the prediction model(x2=3.952,P=0.865),indicating that this model has good predictive abil-ity.Conclusion:The nomogram prediction model based on various risk factors can effectively predict the risk of post-operative common bile duct stone recurrence in patients with gallstones and multiple common bile duct stones.
