Factors Affecting the Success of External Cephalic Version and Construction of Nomogram Prediction Model
- VernacularTitle:外倒转术成功的影响因素和列线图模型构建
- Author:
Huanxi LI
1
;
Qionghua CHEN
;
Yiling CHEN
Author Information
1. 福建医科大学临床医学部妇产科,福建 福州 350000;厦门大学附属妇女儿童医院产科,福建 厦门 361000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
External cephalic version;
Impact factors;
Nomogram
- From:
Journal of Practical Obstetrics and Gynecology
2025;41(1):60-65
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the factors influencing the success of external cephalic version(ECV)and to construct a nomogram prediction model.Methods:The clinical and imaging data of 269 pregnant women who un-derwent ECV by two obstetricians in the Department of Obstetrics,Women and Children's Hospital,School of Medicine,Xiamen University,from 1 July 2018 to 31 July 2023 were collected,and 215 cases were selected as the training set and 54 cases as the validation set.According to the ECV outcome,the patients were divided into the success group(160 cases)and the failure group(55 cases)in the training set.A multifactorial Logistic regression analysis was performed to establish an ECV success rate prediction model and draw a nomogram.The perform-ance and accuracy of the model was evaluated and verified using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,calibration curve and the clinical decision curve(DCA).Results:ECV was performed in 269 pregnant women,with a total success rate of 75.46%,and the success rate of menstruating mothers(81.11%)was higher than that of primigravid women(64.04%),with a statistically significant difference(P<0.05).Multifactorial Logistic regression analysis showed that amniotic fluid index(AFI),placenta position,palpability of the fetal head,direction of the fetal back,and whether the fetal presentation engages the pelvis were independent factors affecting the success of ECV(P<0.05).The above five factors were used to construct a nomogram model with the area under the ROC curve(AUC)was 0.906,and the AUC for the validation set of this model was 0.831.Conclusions:The nomogram model for predicting the success rate of external cephalic version constructed has good accuracy and high clinical application value.
