Global analysis and forecast of the burden of infertility in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019
10.3760/cma.j.cn101441-20240908-00331
- VernacularTitle:全球204个国家和地区1990—2019年不孕不育疾病负担分析及预测
- Author:
Yaning SUN
1
;
Ning XU
;
Yinyin CHEN
;
Yingying CHEN
;
Yawen CAO
;
Wenbin FANG
;
Shuangshuang BAO
;
Shanshan SHAO
;
Fangbiao TAO
;
Guixia PAN
Author Information
1. 安徽医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系，合肥 230032
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Prevalence;
Infertility;
Bayesian age period cohort model;
Autoregressive integrated moving average model;
Estimated annual percentage change;
Disability-a
- From:
Chinese Journal of Reproduction and Contraception
2025;45(3):277-285
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the trend of infertility disease burden from 1990 to 2019 and predict the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rate of male and female infertility for 2020—2029, providing a certain reference for the prevention and treatment of infertility diseases.Methods:Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019, prevalence, ASPR, DALY rate, and age-standardized DALY rate were used to evaluate the global burden of infertility comprehensively. The estimated annual percentage change was used to describe trends in the disease burden of infertility in 21 regions worldwide. The Bayesian age period cohort model was used to predict the ASPR and age-standardized DALY rate for male and female infertility in 204 countries and regions from 2020 to 2029. Sensitivity analysis was performed using the autoregressive integrated moving average model.Results:The prevalence, DALY rate, ASPR and age-standardized DALY rate of global male infertility increased from 319.52 per 100 000,1.82 per 100 000, 2 856.53 per 100 000, and 16.19 per 100 000 in 1990 to 565.30 per 100 000, 3.22 per 100 000, 3 398.53 per 100 000, and 19.36 per 100 000 in 2019, respectively. The prevalence, DALY rate, ASPR, and age-standardized DALY rate of global female infertility increased from 656.67 per 100 000, 3.53 per 100 000, 6 036.36 per 100 000, and 32.27 per 100 000 in 1990 to 1 223.78 per 100 000, 6.59 per 10 000, 7 483.12 per 100 000, and 40.33 per 100 000 in 2019, respectively. The burden of infertility disease was the highest in men and women aged 30-34 years, and the ASPR and age-standardized DALY rates were 4 407.47 per 100 000, 25.08 per 100 000, 10 270.55 per 100 000 and 55.65 per 100 000, respectively. Only in 45-49 years of age, the prevalence of infertility (11.31 per 100 000) and DALY rate (0.06 per 100 000) in women were lower than those in men (15.68 per 100 000 and 0.08 per 100 000). In addition, the burden of infertility was the lowest in high socio-demographic index regions. Cameroon had the highest ASPR (7 652.40 per 100 000) and age-standardized DALY rate (43.94 per 100 000) for male infertility. Chinese women had the highest ASPR (20 402.30 per 100 000) and age-standardized DALY rate (106.16 per 100 000) of infertility. The forecast results show that the burden of male and female infertility diseases will increase in 204 countries and regions from 2020 to 2029.Conclusion:The burden of infertility diseases in men and women increased in 204 countries and regions from 1990 to 2019, and it is predicted that the global burden of infertility diseases will continue to rise in 2020—2029. Preliminary screening of infertility should be carried out as soon as possible, health education should be strengthened and effective prevention and treatment strategies should be formulated.
