Correlation between immune cells and cardiovascular diseases in patients with HIV/AIDS and the construction of a risk prediction model
10.13431/j.cnki.immunol.j.20250109
- VernacularTitle:免疫细胞与人类免疫缺陷病毒/获得性免疫缺陷综合征患者发生心血管疾病的相关性及风险预测模型构建
- Author:
Jiangying LONG
1
;
Cuizhi LI
;
Chunyan WEN
;
Zhihua TANG
;
Yu YUAN
Author Information
1. 河南医药大学第一临床学院CCU,河南 新乡 453100;广州医科大学附属市八医院心血管内科,广州
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
human immunodeficiency virus;
acquired immunodeficiency syndrome;
cardiovascular events;
risk prediction;
immune cells
- From:
Immunological Journal
2025;41(11):793-801
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the correlation between immune cells and the occurrence of cardiovascular disease(CVD)in patients with human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(HIV/AIDS),and to construct a risk prediction model.Methods A total of 280 HIV/AIDS patients treated from June 2024 to August 2025 were selected as the research subjects and divided into a training set(n=200)and a test set(n=80)at a ratio of 5:2.The patients in the training set were subdivided into a CVD subgroup(n=60)and a non-CVD subgroup(n=140)according to whether they developed CVD.The baseline characteristics and immune cells of the two groups were compared,and the longitudinal trajectory changes of immune cells in the CVD subgroup and the non-CVD subgroup were analyzed.LASSO regression analysis was used to screen the independent influencing factors of CVD,multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to screen the independent risk factors for the occurrence of CVD,and a risk prediction nomogram model was constructed.The area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC),Hosmer-Lem show test,calibration curve,and decision curve were used to compare the risk prediction nomogram model with the general cardiovascular risk assessment model,to evaluate its discrimination,goodness-of-fit,and clinical utility.Results There were significant differences in the baseline characteristics and immune cells between the two groups(P<0.05).The longitudinal trajectory plots revealed that the CD4+count,CD8+count,and CD4+/CD8+level in the CVD group exhibited substantial fluctuations,while the trajectories of these parameters in the non-CVD group remained relatively stable.After LASSO regression analysis screened out 11 non-zero coefficient variables,multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age,hypertension,total cholesterol,smoking,high-sensitivity C-reactive protein,CD4+count at the time of HIV diagnosis,CD8+count at the time of HIV diagnosis,and globulin were all independent influencing factors for the occurrence of CVD in HIV/AIDS patients(P<0.05).The AUC of the risk prediction nomogram model was 0.960 in the training set and 0.914 in the test set,indicating good discrimination of the model.The Hosmer-Lem show test and calibration curve showed good accuracy and consistency of the model,and the decision curve showed a high net benefit value,indicating good clinical utility.Conclusion The CVD risk in HIV/AIDS patients is jointly affected by immune dysfunction and traditional metabolic factors.The risk prediction nomogram model constructed significantly improves the accuracy of risk prediction of CVD and can provide a basis for early identification of high-risk patients and the formulation of individualized intervention strategies.
