Construction and validation of a nomogram prediction model for prognosis of retinopathy of prematurity based on serological markers
10.13389/j.cnki.rao.2025.0124
- VernacularTitle:基于血清学标志物早产儿视网膜病变患者预后的Nomogram预测模型构建及验证
- Author:
Yanjun GAO
1
;
Cunxi YE
1
Author Information
1. 050061 河北省石家庄市,河北医科大学第二医院眼科
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
retinopathy of prematurity;
prognosis;
serological markers;
Nomogram prediction model
- From:
Recent Advances in Ophthalmology
2025;45(9):720-724
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To construct a Nomogram prediction model for prognosis of retinopathy of prematurity(ROP)based on serological markers and to validate the predictive value of the model.Methods A total of 195 ROP pa-tients(390 eyes)admitted to the Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2022 to January 2024 were se-lected.After 3-month follow-up post-treatment,the patients were divided into poor-prognosis(n=41)and good-prognosis(n=154)groups.General data and pre-treatment serological markers[vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF),insu-lin-like growth factor-1(IGF-1),glutamate(Glu),signal transduction and transcriptional activator 3(STAT3),hypoxic in-ducible factor 3α(HIF-3α)]were compared between the two groups.LASSO-Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for poor prognosis in ROP patients.A Nomogram prediction model for poor prognosis in ROP patients was construc-ted based on these factors.The predictive value of the model was validated using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves,calibration curves,and decision-curve analysis.Results The 1-min Apgar score,5-min Apgar score,proportion of severe disease,proportion of bronchopulmonary dysplasia(BPD),proportion of sepsis,and pre-treatment serum levels of VEGF,Glu,STAT3,and HIF-3α were higher in the poor-prognosis group than in the good-prognosis group,while gesta-tional age,birth weight,and serum IGF-1 levels were lower(all P＜0.05).LASSO-Logistic regression analysis showed that gestational age,disease severity,BPD,sepsis,and pre-treatment serum levels of VEGF,IGF-1,Glu,STAT3,and HIF-3αwere risk factors for poor prognosis in ROP patients(all P＜0.05).A Nomogram prediction model for poor prognosis in ROP patients was constructed based on these factors.The model had an area under the curve(AUC)of 0.943(95％CI:0.907-0.978)for predicting poor prognosis,indicating high predictive efficacy.The model had good calibration,with good con-sistency between predicted and actual results,and demonstrated good clinical utility in predicting poor prognosis in ROP patients.Conclusion Serum levels of VEGF,IGF-1,Glu,STAT3,and HIF-3α are all prognostic factors for ROP pa-tients.The Nomogram prediction model for ROP prognosis based on these serological markers has high application value.
