Establishment and evaluation of a nomogram prediction model for predicting pregnancy outcomes of poor ovarian response patients in fresh cycles
10.3760/cma.j.cn101441-20210112-00015
- VernacularTitle:卵巢低反应患者新鲜周期妊娠结局的列线图预测模型的构建和评价
- Author:
Ying CHEN
1
;
Fei LI
;
Xiao WU
;
Yila RE
;
Xingmei FENG
;
Yali ZHANG
Author Information
1. 商丘市第一人民医院生殖医学中心，商丘 476000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Poor ovarian response;
Logistic analysis;
Nomogram model;
Pregnancy outcomes;
Influence factor
- From:
Chinese Journal of Reproduction and Contraception
2022;42(7):688-695
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the predictive factors associated with the pregnancy outcome for poor ovarian response (POR) patients, and to establish Nomogram prediction model to evaluate the probability of the live birth of POR patients.Methods:The clinical data of 2667 patients who underwent in vitro fertilization (IVF)/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) treatment in the Center of Reproductive Medicine, the First People's Hospital of Shangqiu and the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University from February 1, 2015 to February 28, 2019 were retrospectively analyzed by a cohort study. Logistic regression was used to screen out the independent predictive factors on the pregnancy outcome of IVF/ICSI in poor ovarian reserve patients, which was the model enrollment variable, and the Nomogram model was established according to the regression coefficient of the relevant variables. The prediction accuracy of the pregnancy outcome nomogram model was evaluated by calculating the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the curve (AUC). Results:Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that female age ( OR=0.876, 95% CI=0.849-0.902, P<0.001), antral follicle count (AFC) ( OR=1.283, 95% CI=1.133-1.463, P<0.001), total dosage of gonadotropin (Gn) used ( OR=1.002, 95% CI=1.001-1.004, P<0.001), duration of Gn used ( OR=0.786, 95% CI=0.636-0.963, P=0.018), No. of M II oocytes ( OR=0.842, 95% CI=0.712-0.985, P=0.033) and No. of transferable embryos ( OR=2.052, 95% CI=1.762-2.403, P<0.001) were independent predictive factors of live birth. According to the independent predictive factors, the prediction model of pregnancy outcome of POR patients was established, and the AUC of the modeling group was 0.894(95% CI=0.879-0.909), the AUC of the validation group was 0.902(95% CI=0.896-0.912), indicating good model compliance. Conclusion:Age, AFC, total dosage of Gn used, duration of Gn used, No. of M II oocytes and No. of transferable embryos are independent predictive factors of the pregnancy outcome for poor ovarian reserve patients, the successful establishment of nomogram model can effectively predict the live birth for POR patients.
