Risk factors for new onset AF after OPCABG surgery and the construction of a nomogram prediction model
10.3969/j.issn.1008-0074.2025.04.06
- VernacularTitle:OPCABG术后新发AF的危险因素及列线图预测模型构建
- Author:
Lu-lu QIAN
1
;
Yu-zhen GUAN
1
;
Li DAI
1
Author Information
1. 江苏省人民医院心脏大血管外科,江苏南京 210000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Atrial fibrillation;
Coronary artery bypass,off-Pump;
Risk factors
- From:
Chinese Journal of cardiovascular Rehabilitation Medicine
2025;34(4):465-469
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To investigate the risk factors of new onset atrial fibrillation(AF)after off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting(OPCABG)and predictive efficacy of the nomogram model.Methods:A total of 116 patients who under-went OPCABG surgery in Jiangsu Provincial People's Hospital between January 2020 and December 2023 were included in this observational study.Multivariate Logistic regression was performed to analyze the risk factors of new onset AF after OPCABG and a nomogram model was constructed.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to assess the predictive efficacy of the model.Results:Among 111 patients in the final analysis,45 patients developed new AF after sur-gery.Multivariate Logistic regression showed that age＞65 years(OR 4.780,95％CI 2.503～9.126,P＜0.001),hyper-tension(OR 7.587,95％CI 3.925～14.666,P＜0.001),right coronary artery stenosis(OR 2.261,95％CI 1.159～4.408,P=0.017),renal insufficiency(OR 2.973,95％CI 1.631～5.420,P＜0.001),β-receptor blockers usage(OR 2.337,95％CI 1.238～4.410,P=0.009)and left ventricular end-diastolic diameter(LVEDd)＞50mm(OR 3.659,95％CI 1.923～6.960,P＜0.001)were independent risk factors for new onset AF after OPCABG surgery.Based on the above-mentioned risk factors,the nomogram prediction model of the risk of new onset AF after OPCABG surgery was es-tablished.ROC analysis showed that the corrected AUC of nomogram model was 0.903(95％CI:0.832～0.951).Conclu-sion:A nomogram constructed based on age＞65 years,hypertension,right coronary artery stenosis,renal insufficiency,β-receptor blockers usage and LVEDd＞50mm had good predictive performance for new onset AF after OPCABG.
