Construction of A Risk Prediction Model for Recurrent Spontaneous Abortion Based on the Relevant Indicators of Vaginal Microecology
10.11969/j.issn.1673-548X.2025.08.012
- VernacularTitle:基于阴道微生态相关指标构建复发性流产风险预测模型
- Author:
Xiaojuan YU
1
;
Yunfang DONG
;
Wanqin HU
Author Information
1. 650101 昆明医科大学第二附属医院产科
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Recurrent spontaneous abortion;
Pregnancy outcomes;
Vaginal microecology;
Influencing factors;
Nomogram
- From:
Journal of Medical Research
2025;54(8):68-73
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the influencing factors of adverse pregnancy outcomes in patients with recurrent spontaneous a-bortion(RSA),construct and validate the Nomogram risk prediction model.Methods A total of 219 patients with RSA admitted to the Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University from March 2021 to March 2024 were selected and divided into the poor preg-nancy outcome group(n=129)and the good pregnancy outcome group(n=90)according to the pregnancy outcome.The case data was collected.Results There were statistically significant differences in the leukocyte esterase(LE)positive/negative,hydrogen peroxide(H2O2)positive/negative,bacterial vaginosis(BV),and gestational week of delivery between two groups(P＜0.05).The results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that LE positivity(OR=10.677),H2O2 negativity(OR=3.796),and BV infection(OR=4.827)were the risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcomes in RSA patients,whereas an increase in the gestational week of deliv-ery(OR=0.294)was a protective factor.The area under the curve(AUC)of the Nomogram prediction model constructed based on this was 0.913.The validation results showed that the model had high discrimination,goodness of fit,calibration and net benefit for clinical decision-making.Conclusion Vaginal microecological imbalance and vaginal enzymatic alterations are correlate with adverse pregnancy outcomes in patients with RSA.The Nomogram prediction model constructed on the basis of LE,H2O2,BV and gestational week of deliv-ery can conveniently and efficiently assess the probability of adverse pregnancy outcomes in patients with RSA,and provide a basis for the early identification of high-risk patients and the prevention of the occurrence and development of RSA.
