Trends and Risk Factors of Cardiovascular Disease Burden in China From 1990 to 2021 and Disease Burden Prediction
10.3969/j.issn.1000-3614.2025.05.009
- VernacularTitle:1990～2021年中国心血管疾病负担变化趋势、可改善危险因素和疾病负担的预测
- Author:
Dongdong ZHENG
1
;
Yingzhu DUAN
;
Rui YU
Author Information
1. 辽宁中医药大学第一临床学院,沈阳 110033;辽宁中医药大学附属医院 沈本急诊中心,沈阳 110032
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
cardiovascular disease;
trends in burden;
decomposition;
risk factor;
prediction
- From:
Chinese Circulation Journal
2025;40(5):501-507
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objectives:To explore the trends of cardiovascular disease(CVD)burden in China from 1990 to 2021 and to provide a basis for the scientific development of corresponding preventive and curative measures.Methods:Based on the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database,we conducted descriptive analyses of age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR),age-standardized prevalence rate(ASPR),disability-adjusted life years(DALY)and other indicators of CVD in China.Indicators were descriptively analysed,trends in CVD burden were analysed using the Joinpoint regression model,the burden of CVD was decomposed according to demographic,ageing and epidemiological changes,and changes in the burden of CVD in 2040 were predicted using the Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model.Results:In 2021,the ASIR,ASPR,DALY and DALY rates of CVD in China were 811.81 per 100 000,6 603.72 per 100 000,100.2087 million person-years and 5 120.06 per 100 000,respectively.Compared to 1990,the ASIR,ASPR,and DALYs increased by 3.56%,9.62%,and 58.42%,respectively,while the DALYs rate decreased by 36.59%.Additionally,the burden of CVD was higher in males than in females;the ASIR increased rapidly for the first time in 1995-2005,the ASPR increased rapidly from 2000 to 2004,and the DALYs rate increased rapidly from 2000 to 2004,and DALYs rates were generally on a downward trend,but showed a rapid upward trend in 1998-2004.Population growth and aging are the main factors leading to changes in DALYs,43.73%and 172.31%,respectively;in 2021,hypertension and environmental particulate matter are the top two risk factors for CVD in China;projections show that the number of CVD incidence,disease,and cases of DALYs in China in 2040 will be 28.7901 million,226.6148 million,and 169.4057 million person-years,respectively,and the number of cases is on the upward trend.Conclusions:The burden of CVD in China increased overall from 1990 to 2021,and the burden was higher in men than in women,mainly due to population growth,aging,and risk factors.High systolic blood pressure remains the main cause of CVD.
