Construction of a Nomogram risk prediction model for deep vein thrombosis in patients with knee osteoarthritis after artificial total knee arthroplasty
10.16753/j.cnki.1008-2344.2025.01.010
- VernacularTitle:膝骨关节炎患者经人工全膝关节置换术后深静脉血栓形成的Nomogram风险预测模型的构建
- Author:
Peng LIU
1
;
Xiaopeng WANG
1
;
Linfeng HU
1
Author Information
1. 新余市人民医院骨科,江西 新余 338000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
knee osteoarthritis;
artificial total knee arthroplasty;
deep vein thrombosis;
influencing factors
- From:
Journal of Shenyang Medical College
2025;27(1):55-60
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To investigate the factors influencing the occurrence of deep vein thrombosis(DVT)in patients with knee osteoarthritis after artificial total knee arthroplasty(TKA)and to construct a nomogram prediction model.Methods:A total of 120 patients with knee osteoarthritis underwent TKA from Dec 2020 to Dec 2022 were selected.The patients were divided into DVT group(n=20)and non-DVT group(n=100)according to whether DVT occurred after surgery.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to analyze the predictive value of each influencing factor to the occurrence of DVT.Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze the factors affecting the occurrence of DVT.The nomogram prediction model of DVT was constructed by the R software 4.0"rms"package.The calibration and decision curves were used to internally validate and clinically assess the predictive efficacy of the nomogram prediction model.Results:There were significant differences between DVT group and non-DVT group in age,body mass index(BMI),diabetes mellitus,hyperlipidaemia,plasma D-dimer level,operative time,intraoperative haemorrhage,post-operative bedrest,and anaesthesia modality(P＜0.05).ROC curve showed that the AUC for age,BMI,plasma D-dimer,operative time,intraoperative haemorrhage,and postoperative bedrest were 0.663,0.678,0.985,0.856,0.925 and 0.925,respectively.Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that age≥71 years old,BMI≥25.47 kg/m2,diabetes mellitus,hyperlipidaemia,plasma D-dimer level≥0.69 mg/L,and general anaesthesia were independent risk factors for postoperative DVT(P＜0.05).The calibration curve of the nomogram prediction model was close to the original and ideal curves,with a C-index of 0.813(0.721-0.905),indicating a high degree of fit.The threshold value of the nomogram prediction model was＞0.17,which could provide a net clinical benefit.And its net clinical benefit was higher than age,BMI,diabetes mellitus,hyperlipidemia,plasma D-dimer,and anaesthesia mode.Conclusions:The factors affecting the occurrence of DVT in patients with knee osteoarthritis after TKA are age,BMI,diabetes mellitus,hyperlipidaemia,plasma D-dimer level,operative time,intraoperative haemorrhage,postoperative bedtrest,and anaesthesia mode.The personalized neomorph prediction model constructed by these predictive factors can help to predict and evaluate whether DVT will be occurred in patients with knee osteoarthritis after TKA,so as to intervene early,reduce the incidence and improve the prognosis.
