Analysis of influencing factors of acute cardiovascular and cerebrovascular accidents after surgery in elderly patients with lower extremity fracture
10.11958/20250587
- VernacularTitle:老年下肢骨折患者术后发生急性心脑血管意外的影响因素分析
- Author:
Wanting LI
1
;
Hongyang LIU
;
Jing SANG
;
Yufeng RUAN
;
Li XU
;
Dongmei LI
Author Information
1. 唐山市第二医院关节科(邮编 063000)
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
cardiovascular diseases;
cerebrovascular disorders;
fracture;
nomogram;
aged
- From:
Tianjin Medical Journal
2025;53(6):648-653
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze risk factors of acute cardio-cerebrovascular accidents in elderly patients with lower extremity fracture,and to construct a risk prediction diagram model.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 510 elderly patients with lower extremity fractures,and the patients were divided into the occurrence group and the non-occurrence group based on the occurrence of acute cardiovascular and cerebrovascular accidents during the postoperative hospitalization.Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze risk factors affecting acute cardiovascular and cerebrovascular accidents in elderly patients with lower extremity fracture,and the risk prediction model was constructed and verified.Results A total of 52 cases of acute cardio-cerebrovascular accidents occurred during hospitalization in 510 patients(10.20%).Age,ASA grade Ⅲ ratio,preoperative concurrent cerebrovascular disease,postoperative pneumonia ratio and postoperative bed time≥5 days ratio were higher in the occurrence group than those in the non-occurrence group(P＜0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age,ASA grade Ⅲ,preoperative concurrent cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease,and postoperative pneumonia were risk factors for acute cardio-cerebrovascular accidents in elderly patients with lower limb fracture(P＜0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors as predictive variables to build a risk early warning histogram model for acute cardio-cerebrovascular accidents.The total score ranged from 103 to 168 points,corresponding to a risk range of 0.1 to 0.9 points.Receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)curve results showed that the area under the curve(AUC)of this model for predicting acute cardiovascular and cerebrovascular accidents was 0.980(95%CI:0.964-1.000),and discrete choice approach(DCA)showed that when the risk threshold was 0.2-0.6,the prediction model of this column graph had a good clinical advantage.Conclusion The risk diagram model constructed based on risk factors has good predictive value for the occurrence of acute cardio-cerebrovascular accidents after lower extremity fracture in elderly patients.
