Analysis and prediction of globally and Chinese epidemiological trends of inflammatory bowel disease from 1990 to 2021
10.3760/cma.j.cn311367-20241115-00442
- VernacularTitle:1990至2021年全球总体及中国炎症性肠病流行病学变化趋势分析及预测
- Author:
Xingzhou JIANG
1
;
Chenyang LI
;
Honglei ZHOU
;
Guoxin ZHANG
Author Information
1. 南京医科大学第一附属医院消化内科，南京 210029
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Inflammatory bowel disease;
Incidence rate;
Disability-adjusted life year;
Trend analysis;
Prediction
- From:
Chinese Journal of Digestion
2025;45(4):247-255
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the changes in the number of patients, incidence, mortality rate, disability-adjusted life year (DALY), years lived with disability (YLD), and years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL) globally and in China from 1990 to 2021, and to predict future trends in the number of patients and DALY of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) globally and in China.Methods:Descriptive epidemiology was applied. Data on globally and Chinese IBD burden indicators, including prevalence, incidence, mortality, DALY, YLL, and YLD were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 Database from 1990 to 2021, and the trends in the changes and distributions of age and gender were analyzed. The age-standardized rate was standardization based on the world standard population age structure estimated by GBD. Auto-regressive integrated moving average model was used to predict the number of IBD patients and DALY globally and in China from 2022 to 2030.Results:In 1990 and 2021, the global number of IBD patients was 2.170 2 and 3.830 1 million, respectively, while in China which was 62 100 and 168 100, respectively. The global crude incidence rate and age-standardized incidence rate were 3.74/100 000, 4.22/100 000, 4.75/100 000, and 4.45/100 000, respectively. The crude incidence rate and age-standardized incidence rate in China were 0.71/100 000, 0.74/100 000 and 1.75/100 000, 1.40/100 000, respectively. In 1990 and 2021, the global crude mortality rate and age-standardized mortality rate of IBD were 0.40/100 000, 0.60/100 000 and 0.54/100 000, 0.52/100 000, respectively; the crude mortality rate and age-standardized mortality rate in China were 0.37/100 000, 0.75/100 000 and 0.40/100 000, 0.33/100 000, respectively. Compared with those in 1990, the global crude DALY, YLD and YLL of IBD all increased in 2021, which were 1 510.8 thousand person-years vs. 948.9 thousand person-years, 579.2 thousand person-years vs. 330.9 thousand person-years, 931.6 thousand person-years vs. 618.0 thousand person-years; the age-standardized DALY, YLD and YLL all decreased, which were 18.07/100 000 vs. 21.54/100 000, 6.79/100 000 vs. 7.27/100 000, 11.27/100 000 vs. 14.27/100 000, respectively. Compared with those in 1990, the crude YLD and the age-standardized YLD in China both increased (26.9 thousand person-years vs. 10.1 thousand person-years, 1.47/100 000 vs. 0.91/100 000), while the crude DALY, the age-standardized DALY, crude YLL and the age-standardized YLL all decreased (136.9 thousand person-years vs. 162.2 thousand person-years, 7.68/100 000 vs. 18.38/100 000, 110 thousand person-years vs. 152 thousand person-years, 6.21/100 000 vs. 17.47/100 000).From 1990 to 2021, male and female age-standardized incidence and prevalence of IBD were all in upward trend. The difference in the incidence of IBD between males and females was relatively small, and the global age-standardized incidence of IBD in males were slightly higher than those in females, while in China the rates are similar between the two genders. The global and Chinese age-standardized prevalence in females were slightly higher than those in males. From 1990 to 2021, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of age-standardized IBD incidence in global and China were 0.24 (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.16 to 0.31) and 1.55 (95% CI: 1.25 to 1.86), respectively; the EAPC of age-standardized DALY in global and China were -0.50 (95% CI: -0.58 to -0.41) and -2.71 (95% CI: -2.99 to -2.43), respectively. The age distribution of disease onset shifted towards middle-aged and old population. It was predicted that by 2030, the annual number of new IBD cases in global would increase to 410 100, while in China, it would decrease to 21 184. Furthermore, the global DALY of IBD would increase to 1 670 527 person-year, and in China which would be 140 563 person-year. Conclusions:From 1990 to 2021, the global and Chinese number of patients and the incidence of IBD both sustained increase. The age of IBD onset towards older population. The incidence trend of IBD was aging, with significant gender bias. The global community and China continue to face many severe challenges in IBD.
