Analysis and prediction of the disease burden of esophageal cancer by province in China from 1990 to 2019
10.3760/cma.j.cn311367-20240424-00166
- VernacularTitle:1990至2019年中国分省食管癌疾病负担现状分析及预测
- Author:
Zhiyuan CHENG
1
;
Tinglu WANG
;
Yunfei JIAO
;
Jinlei QI
;
Maigeng ZHOU
;
Rong WAN
;
Zhaoshen LI
;
Luowei WANG
Author Information
1. 上海交通大学医学院附属第一人民医院消化内科，上海 200080
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Esophageal neoplasm;
Disease burden;
Socio-demographic index;
Disability adjusted life year;
Average annual percent change;
China
- From:
Chinese Journal of Digestion
2025;45(3):156-161
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the prevalence, trends in disease burden, and risk factors of esophageal cancer in various provinces of China from 1990 to 2019.Methods:Utilizing data from the 2019 global burden of disease study, the disease burden of esophageal cancer of 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, as well as Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and Macao Special Administrative Region of China from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed. The disease burden of esophageal cancer in China was described with the number (and incidence) of cases, the number (and mortality) of death, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) and their age-standardized rates. Joinpoint regression analysis and t-test were used to evaluate the annual percent change and the average annual percent change (AAPC). Scatter plots and Spearman correlation coefficients were performed to analyze the correlation between the disease burden of esophageal cancer and the socio-demographic index (SDI), as well as DALY in each province. Results:In 2019, there were 278 121 new cases of esophageal cancer and 257 316 deaths in China, increased by 60.13% and 45.70% respectively compared with 1990. The top 3 provinces with the highest age-standardized incidence of esophageal cancer were Sichuan Province (25.96/100 000), Jiangsu Province (23.80/100 000), and Fujian Province (21.98/100 000). From 1990 to 2019, except for Jiangsu Province and Sichuan Province, the age-standardized incidence in other provinces showed a declining trend. The age-standardized mortality and DALYs of esophageal cancer decreased in all provinces as well as in Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions of China. The attributable risk factors of esophageal cancer caused deaths in China mainly included smoking, alcohol consumption, high body mass index, and low fruit intake, accounting for 91.38% of all the cases. With the increase of the SDI, the age-standardized rates of DALY in high incidence areas of esophageal cancer (Sichuan Province, Jiangsu Province, Fujian Province, Henan Province, Chongqing City, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Shanxi Province, and Anhui Province) demonstrated a trend of initially decline and then an upward. In contrast, the age-standardized rates of DALY of esophageal cancer in other provinces, as well as in Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions of China, showed a trend of initially upward and then decline. The age-standardized rate of DALY of esophageal cancer showed a negative correlation with SDI ( r=-0.315, P<0.001). From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer generally demonstrated a downward trend. The AAPC was -1.43% ( t=-19.16, P<0.001) for incidence and -1.83% ( t=-29.63, P<0.001) for mortality, respectively. It is projected that by 2044, the actual number of new esophageal cancer cases in China will increase from 278 121 in 2019 to 291 206 in 2044, and the actual number of deaths will increase from 257 316 to 275 856. Conclusions:In recent years, the disease burden of esophageal cancer in China remains a serious status, with significant differences in geography and gender. It is projected that by 2044, the number of new esophageal cancer cases and deaths in China will continue to increase. Effective strategies and policies are urgently needed to reduce the disease burden.
