Risk factors analysis of portal vein thrombosis in liver cirrhosis and establishment of a prediction model
- VernacularTitle:肝硬化门静脉血栓形成的危险因素分析及预测模型建立
- Author:
Qingqing YAO
1
;
Wen SHI
1
;
Miaojia YAN
1
;
Hongxia LI
1
Author Information
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords: liver cirrhosis; decompensated stage; portal vein thrombosis; risk factor; prediction model
- From: Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University(Medical Sciences) 2025;46(2):310-316
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
- Abstract: Objective To explore the risk factors for portal vein thrombosis(PVT)in patients with cirrhosis in the decompensated stage and construct a risk prediction model for PVT so as to improve the early diagnosis rate of decompensated liver cirrhosis PVT.Methods The clinical data of patients with cirrhosis in the decompensated stage admitted to Department of Gastroenterology,The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University between June 2018 and June 2023 were collected and divided into cirrhosis PVT group(n=135)and cirrhosis non-PVT group(n=225)according to whether or not portal vein thrombosis was formed.We made a univariate analysis of the general data,laboratory indexes,liver function scores and imaging findings of the patients in the two groups,and indexes with statistically significant differences were included in binary Logistic regression for multifactorial analysis to screen out independent risk factors.A predictive model of binary Logistic regression was established based on the independent risk factors.The clinical data of the validation set were incorporated into the model,the accuracy of the prediction model was evaluated by receiver operating curve(ROC),and the practicability of the model was evaluated by consistency curve to complete the validation and evaluation of the constructed prediction model.Internal stability of the model was verified with Bootstrap method.Finally,R software(4.3.1)was used to draw a nomogram of the prediction model to visualize the model.Results Univariate analysis revealed statistically significant differences between patients in the PVT and non-PVT groups in the following five aspects:history of splenectomy,history of endoscopic varicose vein treatment,portal vein diameter,and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio(P＜0.05).Binary Logistics regression analysis showed that a history of splenectomy(P=0.002,OR=3.012,95％CI:1.500-6.047),a history of endoscopic varicose vein treatment(P=0.001,OR=2.276,95％CI:1.400-3.698),widening of portal vein diameter(P=0.007,OR=1.942,95％CI:1.202-3.136),increased neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio(P=0.009,OR=1.886,95％CI:1.170-3.041),and elevated D-dimer(P＜0.001,OR=3.725,95％CI:2.149-6.485)were independent risk factors for the formation of portal vein thrombosis in patients with cirrhosis in the decompensated stage of cirrhosis chemically presented(P＜0.05).The area under the ROC curve of the predictive model and the model after internal validation was 0.760 and 0.7494,respectively.The model still had good prediction ability and accuracy in the verification set.Conclusion A history of splenectomy,history of endoscopic varicose vein treatment,widening of portal vein diameter,increased neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio,and elevated D-dimer concentration are independent risk factors for the formation of portal vein thrombosis in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.The Logistic prediction model and visual nomogram constructed based on the above independent risk factors have a good ability to predict the occurrence of PVT in patients with decompensated cirrhosis and have important clinical guiding significance for early screening patients with PVT in decompensated cirrhosis.
