Analysis of disease burden and trend of pancreatic cancer in our country based on the Global Burden of Disease from 1990-2021
10.3760/cma.j.cn113884-20250429-00144
- VernacularTitle:基于全球疾病负担分析1990~2021年我国胰腺癌负担及变化趋势
- Author:
Tong LI
1
;
Meilan LIU
1
;
Qing WANG
1
;
Tianhan SUN
1
;
Jianfu CAO
1
;
Junmin WEI
1
;
Hongyuan CUI
1
Author Information
1. 国家老年医学中心 中国医学科学院老年医学研究院 北京协和医学院 北京医院普通外科，北京 100730
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Pancreatic neoplasms;
Incidence;
Mortality;
Global burden of disease;
Disability adjusted life years
- From:
Chinese Journal of Hepatobiliary Surgery
2025;31(9):671-677
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the disease burden and changing trend of pancreatic cancer in our country from 1990 to 2021, and predict the incidence and mortality trends of pancreatic cancer from 2022 to 2036.Methods:Utilizing the data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 Study, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life rate (DALY) of pancreatic cancer in our country from 1990 to 2021 were evaluated. DALY is calculated by adding the number of years of life lost due to pancreatic cancer to the years of life lost due to disability. The Joinpoint model was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC), the age-period-cohort model was applied to control the influence of age, period and birth cohort, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the incidence and mortality trends of pancreatic cancer in our country from 2022 to 2036.Results:Compared with 1990, the data of ASIR, ASMR and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates of pancreatic cancer in our country in 2021 all increased, and the increase in men was more significant than that in women. The peaks of morbidity and mortality in 1990 and 2021 were both occurred in the elderly. The incidence rate, mortality rate and changes of men in all age groups were higher than those of women. The changes in the age-standardized DALY rate were mainly reflected in the male population. The first peaks of the age-standardized DALY rate in 1990 and 2021 both occurred at the age of 70-74, and the second peak of the age-standardized DALY rate in 2021 shifted to the age of 85-89. The peak rate of age-standardized DALY in females is earlier than that in males. The AAPC of ASIR and ASMR for all genders of pancreatic cancer in our country from 1990 to 2021 was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.50-0.94, P<0.001) and 0.56 (95% CI: 0.31-0.82, P<0.001), respectively, and the difference was statistically significant. In our country men with pancreatic cancer, ASIR (AAPC=0.89, 95% CI: 0.68-1.10, P<0.001) and ASMR (AAPC=0.71, 95% CI: 0.49-0.93, P<0.001) were compared with ASIR (AAPC=0.48, 95% CI: ) in women. 0.22-0.73, P<0.001) and ASMR (AAPC=0.33, 95% CI: 0.08-0.58, P=0.010) increased rapidly, and the difference was statistically significant. The ASDR of all genders showed an upward trend (AAPC=0.36, 95% CI: 0.18-0.54, P<0.001), and the difference was statistically significant. The incidence rate and mortality rate of all genders are on the rise. When the age of the population is over 60 years old, the incidence and mortality of specific diseases show an upward trend with the delay of the birth cohort. It is expected that from 2022 to 2036, the ASIR and ASMR of both men and women will increase annuallyand eventually double. Conclusion:From 1990 to 2021, the burden of pancreatic cancer in our country has generally shown an increasing trend, and it is expected that the disease burden will further increase in the future.
