Construction and validation of nomogram model for predicting recurrence of common bile duct stones after ERCP
10.3760/cma.j.cn113884-20241217-00377
- VernacularTitle:预测ERCP术后胆总管结石复发列线图模型的构建及验证
- Author:
Hui GUO
1
;
Yali CHEN
;
Zhonghua JIANG
Author Information
1. 徐州医科大学盐城临床学院，盐城 224006
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Choledocholithiasis;
Acute cholangitis;
Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography;
Risk prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Hepatobiliary Surgery
2025;31(8):585-591
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To construct and validate a nomogram prediction model for the recurrence of common bile duct stones after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in patients with common bile duct stones.Methods:The clinical data of 515 patients with common bile duct stones treated in Yancheng First People's Hospital from January 2018 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed, including 273 males and 242 females, aged (65.5±12.1) years. According to the ratio of 8∶2, all cases were randomly divided into a training set ( n=412) and a validation set ( n=103). According to whether common bile duct stones recurred after ERCP, 412 patients in the training set were divided into two groups: the recurrence group ( n=72) and the non-recurrence group ( n=340). The patients' gender, age, length and diameter of stones, number of stones, diameter of common bile duct and other clinical data were recorded. The logistic regression model was used to analyze the risk factors of recurrence, and a nomogram was constructed based on the analysis results. The concordanceindex, area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration chart were used to evaluate the model. Bootstrap self sampling method was used to internally verify the prediction model. Results:The recurrence rate of common bile duct stones in the training set was 17.5% (72/412). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that stone length, stone number, mixed stones, periampullary diverticulum, postoperative cholecystectomy, nipple incision were risk factors for recurrence of common bile duct stones after ERCP (all P<0.05). Small incision of nipple assisted with large balloon dilatation, incision of nipple titanium splint synthesis, and postoperative ursodeoxycholic acid were protective factors for recurrence of common bile duct stones after ERCP (all P<0.05). The concordance index of the nomogram model based on the above influencing factors was 0.791(95% CI: 0.633-0.892), and the area under the ROC curve for predicting postoperative recurrence of common bile duct stones in the training set and the validation set were 0.905(95% CI: 0.819-0.987) and 0.873(95% CI: 0.809-0.935), respectively. The calibration curve was basically consistent with the ideal curve, and the concordanceindex of internal validation was 0.781(95% CI: 0.628-0.874). Conclusion:The nomogram model based on the influencing factors of common bile duct stone recurrence can predict the risk of common bile duct stone recurrence after ERCP.
