Historical trend analysis and future projection of osteoarthritis disease burden attributable to high body mass index in China
10.3760/cma.j.cn141217-20240930-00281
- VernacularTitle:高体质量指数所致中国骨关节炎疾病负担变化趋势及预测分析
- Author:
Ping ZHU
1
;
Ju LI
;
Zhongyuan ZHANG
;
Jiajia WANG
;
Yi′an TIAN
;
Rui YUE
;
Deqian MENG
;
Kai WANG
Author Information
1. 江苏护理学院附属淮安中医院内分泌科，淮安 223002
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Osteoarthritis;
Body mass index;
Cost of illness;
Disability-adjusted life years;
China
- From:
Chinese Journal of Rheumatology
2025;29(8):662-667
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:This study aims to analyze historical trends and predict future trends of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to high BMI for osteoarthritis (OA) in China. OA is a common chronic degenerative joint disease, with high body mass index (BMI) being a significant risk factor. in China.Methods:Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we analyzed trends in high-BMI-attributable OA. The ASR of hogh-BMI-attributable OA DALYs increased from DALYs in China from 1990 to 2021. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict trends from 2022 to 2046. Age-standardized rates (ASR) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated to assess trend changes of trends. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict trends from 2022 to 2046. Chi-square tests were used to compare differences in high BMI attribution proportions between regions and years.Results:From 1990 to 2021, China′s OA DALYs increased from 1.829 to 5.327 million, with the proportion attributable to high BMI rising from 13.47% to 21.86% ( χ2=60 527.25, P<0.001). The ASR of high-BMI-attributable to OA increased from 27.4 (-2.2, 81.5) per 100,000 to 53.0 (-4.7, 150.7) per 100 000, with an EAPC of 2.48% [95% (uncertainty interval, UI): 2.35, 2.62]. In 2021, females showed significantly higher ASR (69.2 per 100 000) than males (36.1 per 100 000). Knee OA (ASR: 50.5/100 000) demonstrated substantially higher burden than hip OA (ASR: 2.5/100 000). Age effect analysis showed DALYs peaked at ages 80~90; period effect indicated accelerated growth after 2005; cohort effect showed a U-shaped trend with the 1990 birth cohort having the highest relative risk (approximately 3.0). Projections indicated that up to 2046, total OA DALYs will reach approximately 2.39 million with an ASR of about 71, showing more significant growth among females (ASR reaching 100). Conclusion:High-BMI-attributable to OA DALYs in China shows a significant upward trend, and is expected to continue. This trend is more pronounced among females and elderly populations than males, highlighting the urgency of implementing preventive measures for high-risk groups, particularly in weight management.
