Construction and Validation of a Prediction Model Combined with Traditional Chinese Medicine Constitution for the Risk of Pre-Frailty and Frailty among the Elderly in Communities of Chengdu
10.11842/wst.20240110005
- VernacularTitle:结合体质的成都市社区老年人衰弱前期/衰弱风险预测模型的构建及验证
- Author:
Yanyun HE
1
;
Huixue HU
1
;
Lirong ZENG
1
;
Chongli CHEN
1
;
Wenbin WU
1
Author Information
1. 成都中医药大学附属医院 成都 610072
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Elderly;
Frailty;
Risk factors;
Traditional Chinese medicine constitution;
Prediction model
- From:
World Science and Technology-Modernization of Traditional Chinese Medicine
2025;27(2):437-445
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective Analysing the risk factors for the occurrence of pre-frailty or frailty of the community elderly in Chengdu and constructing a risk prediction model.Methods The general information questionnaire,MNA-SF scale,Changsha version of the MoCA scale,PSQI scale,FRAIL scale,and Traditional Chinese Medicine Constitution Scale for the elderly were used in the cross-sectional survey.A total of 400 elderly people who completed community physical examinations in Chengdu from April 2022 to April 2023 were selected as the research objects.Based on multivariate Logistic regression analysis,the independent influencing factors were determined,and RStudio software was used to construct a risk prediction model nomogram.The physical examination data of 200 elderly people collected in Deyang City from June 2023 to October 2023 were used for external verification.The area under the ROC curve,Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curve,and decision curve were used to evaluate the discrimination,calibration,and clinical practicability of the model.Results Age,abdominal circumference,number of chronic diseases,PSQI score,allergy history,and balanced constitution were independent influencing factors for pre-frailty/frailty in the elderly in the community(P<0.05),and the regression equation was as follows:Logit(P)=0.063×age+0.025×abdominal circumference-1.006×allergy history+0.300×number of chronic diseases+0.082×PSQI-1.013×balanced constitution-8.269.The area under the ROC curve of the modeling group was 0.779(95%CI:0.733-0.825),the sensitivity was 67.1%,the specificity was 76.3%,and the maximum Youden index was 0.434.The area under the ROC curve of the external validation group was 0.783(95%CI:0.709-0.856),the sensitivity was 62.0%,the specificity was 95.0%,and the maximum Youden index was 0.570.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test results of the two groups were χ2=3.285,P=0.915 and χ2=8.376,P=0.398,and the calibration curve fit was good.DCA showed that the threshold probability of clinical benefit was 5%-99%and 21%-98%.Conclusions The pre-frailty/frailty risk prediction model established in this study has good predictive efficacy for the elderly in the community,and the use of this model for screening and early intervention of high-risk populations can be clinically beneficial.
