Analysis of risk factors for the onset of second primary cancer after cervical cancer and the construction of a prognostic prediction nomogram model
10.3760/cma.j.cn115355-20240625-00311
- VernacularTitle:子宫颈癌后第二原发癌发病危险因素分析及预后预测列线图模型的构建
- Author:
Zhiyu TIAN
1
;
Weihong ZHAO
;
Xiaodong GU
Author Information
1. 山西医科大学公共卫生学院，太原 030001
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Uterine cervical neoplasms;
Second primary neoplasm;
Prognosis;
Nomograms
- From:
Cancer Research and Clinic
2025;37(5):328-333
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To investigate the risk factors of secondary primary cancer (SPC) after cervical cancer and to construct a nomogram model for predicting the prognosis.Methods:The data of 3 790 patients with primary cervical cancer from the 3rd edition of the International Classification of Diseases Oncology (ICD-O-3) number C53.9 between 2000 and 2020 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were retrospectively analyzed, and SPC occurred in 2 036 cases out of 3 790 patients. Standardized incidence rate (SIR) of patients with cervical cancer was calculated by using SEER*Stat software; Cox proportional hazards model was used to make the univariate and multivariate analysis on the influencing factors of the overall survival (OS) in patients with SPC after cervical cancer. By using the "rms" package of R software, nomogram models for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates in SPC patients after cervical cancer were constructed based on prognostic independent influencing factors. The prediction efficacy and consistency of the model were verified by using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the calibration curve.Results:The cervical cancer patients with the age of diagnosis of 20-34 years old (SIR: 1.76, 95% CI: 1.57-1.98), black race (SIR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.61-1.90), the interval period of 2 primary tumors: 6-11 months (SIR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.50-1.90), histologic grade Ⅳ (SIR: 1.62, 95% CI: 1 30-2.00), chemotherapy (SIR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.56-1.71), radiotherapy (SIR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1.53-1.66), unmarried (SIR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.41-1.54) had high SIR. Multivariate Cox regression analysis results of 2 036 SPC patients after cervical cancer showed that unmarried, SEER stage of regional lesion phase, distant metastasis phase and unknown, histologic grade of Ⅱ, Ⅲ, Ⅳ and the unknown, unknown lymph node dissection, other sites expert for lymphoma in SPC sites were independent risk factors of OS in SPC patients after cervical cancer (all P < 0.05); receiving surgery for SPC (compared to those not receiving surgery, HR = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.32-0.45, P = 0.001), radiotherapy (compared to those not receiving radiotherapy or unknown, HR = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.56-0.78, P = 0.001), and chemotherapy (compared to those not receiving chemotherapy or unknown, HR = 0.86, 95% CI:0.74-0.99, P = 0.034) were independent protective factors of OS in SPC patients after cervical cancer. The results of Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the differences in the OS of SPC patients after cervical cancer with different marriage status, SEER stage, histologic grade, lymph node dissection, surgery for SPC, primary sites of SPC and whether receiving radiochemotherapy were all statistically significant (all P < 0.001). Based on the 8 variables including marital status, SEER stage, histologic grade, whether lymph nodes have been cleared, whether SPC has been treated with surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and the primary sites of SPC, a nomogram model for predicting the 1-, 3- and 5-year OS rates of SPC patients after cervical cancer was established. The results of ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of the model for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates was 0.841, 0.847, and 0.847, respectively. The calibration curves showed a good consistency between the predicted results of model and the actual results. Conclusions:A prognostic prediction nomogram model for SPC after cervical cancer constructed based on the data in the SEER database has a high clinical application value and calibration.
