Construction and validation of the prediction model for the metastasis risk of right-sided LN-prRLN in patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma at cN 0 stage
10.3760/cma.j.cn115355-20240828-00406
- VernacularTitle:cN 0期甲状腺微小乳头状癌患者右侧LN-prRLN转移风险预测模型的构建及验证
- Author:
Tianhao ZHANG
1
;
Zhiwei HAO
;
Jie AN
;
Jin LI
;
Jinhang LI
;
Zhanwu JIANG
Author Information
1. 保定市第一中心医院普通外二科，保定 071000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Papillary thyroid microcarcinoma;
Lymphatic metastasis;
Right-sided lymph nodes posterior to right recurrent laryngeal nerve;
Nomograms
- From:
Cancer Research and Clinic
2025;37(8):577-583
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To investigate the factors influencing the metastasis of right-sided lymph nodes posterior to right recurrent laryngeal nerve (LN-prRLN) in patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) at cN 0 stage, to construct a nomogram prediction model for metastasis of right-sided LN-prRLN in patients with PTMC at cN 0 stage and to provide the decision reference for the dissection of right-sided LN-prRLN. Methods:A retrospective case-controlled study was conducted. The clinical data of patients receiving right-sided LN-prRLN dissection in Baoding No.1 Central Hospital between January 2023 and June 2024 were collected. All patients were divided into the metastatic group and the normal group according to whether metastasis of right-sided LN-prRLN would happen after the postoperative pathological examination. The differences in the clinicopathological characteristics between the 2 groups were compared, and multivariate logistic regression model was used to screen out the independent risk factors influencing right-sided LN-prRLN. A nomogram prediction model for metastasis of right-sided LN-prRLN based on independent risk factors was built; taking the postoperative pathological examination results as the gold standard, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the efficacy of the model in determining the metastasis of right-sided LN-prRLN. Bootstrap internal validation method was used for random sampling to calculate the consistency index (CI) of the model. The calibration curves and clinical decision curves were drawn to respectively verify the calibration degree of the model and the clinical application ability of the model.Results:All 235 patients included 57 males (24.3%) and 178 females (75.7%). The age was (39±13) years old and 47 cases (20.0%) out of 235 patients had the metastasis of right-sided LN-prRLN. The proportion of patients characterized by male, right-sided tumors, tumor diameter > 0.5 cm, extrathyroidal invasion, metastasis of right-sided lymph nodes anterior to right recurrent laryngeal nerve (LN-arRLN) in the metastatic group was higher than that in the normal group, and the differences were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that male ( OR = 3.705, 95% CI: 1.133-12.116, P = 0.030), right-sided tumors ( OR = 5.610, 95% CI: 1.811-17.381, P = 0.003), the increased tumor diameter ( OR = 3.504, 95% CI: 1.169-10.507, P = 0.025), extrathyroidal invasion ( OR = 2.812, 95% CI: 1.026-7.708, P = 0.044) and right-sided LN-arRLN metastasis ( OR = 10.522, 95% CI: 3.237-34.199, P < 0.001) were independent risk factors of the metastasis of LN-prRLN in PTMC patients at cN 0 stage; based on the above independent risk factors, a nomogram prediction model was established. The ROC curve showed that the area under the curve of the nomogram prediction model for determining the metastasis of right-sided LN-prRLN in PTMC patients at cN 0 stage was 0.864 (95% CI: 0.794-0.935), Youden index was 0.735, the optimal cut-off value was 4.562, the corresponding sensitivity was 87.0%, and the corresponding specificity was 86.5%, which indicated a high predictive value of the nomogram model. Bootstrap test internal validation showed that the CI was 0.810 (95% CI: 0.763-0.917). Calibration curves showed that bias-corrected line was close to the ideal line, indicating a good consistency ( P = 0.347). Decision curve showed a good clinical efficacy. Conclusions:Male, right-sided tumors, the increased tumor diameter, extrathyroidal invasion and right-sided LN-arRLN metastasis are independent risk factors for right-sided LN-prRLN metastases in patients with PTMC at cN 0 stage. The nomogram prediction model based on the above factors has a good predictive performance, which is helpful for surgeons to make clinical decisions.
