Analysis of incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer in China from 1992 to 2021 based on age-period-cohort model
10.11904/j.issn.1002-3070.2025.01.002
- VernacularTitle:基于年龄-时期-队列模型的1992-2021年中国卵巢癌发病和死亡分析
- Author:
Shuai KOU
1
;
Yuping WANG
1
;
Xiaoxia SUN
1
;
Juanjuan REN
1
Author Information
1. 西安交通大学第一附属医院榆林医院妇产科(榆林 719000)
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Ovarian cancer;
Age-period-cohort model;
Incidence;
Mortality
- From:
Practical Oncology Journal
2025;39(1):7-12
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective The aim of this study was to explore the effects of age,period and cohort on the incidence and death of ovarian cancer in China from 1992 to 2021.Methods The incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer in China from 1992 to 2021 were analyzed using the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database.The time trend of standardized incidence and standardized mortality of ovarian cancer from 1992 to 2021 was analyzed using Join Point 4.8.0.1 software,and the average annual change percent-age change(AAPC)was calculated.The age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the effects of age,period and birth cohort on the incidence and mortality trend of ovarian cancer.Results In 2021,the incidence(3.67/100,000)and mortality rate(2.18/100,000)of ovarian cancer in China increased by 61.85% and 66.06% ,respectively,compared with 1992.The trend analysis showed that the standardized incidence and standardized mortality of ovarian cancer in China decreased from 1992 to 2021,and the AAPC was-0.10% (95% CI:-0.40% -0.12% ,P>0.05)and-0.60% (95% CI:-0.80% --0.30% ,P<0.05),respectively.From 2014 to 2021,the standardized incidence and standardized mortality of ovarian cancer showed an increasing trend,with an average annual in-crease of 1.58% and 1.42% ,and the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).The results of age-effect analysis showed that the overall incidence of ovarian cancer distributed by age in China from 1992 to 2021 increased first and then decreased,with a rapid increase trend at the age of 15 to 54,a fluctuating trend at the age of 55 to 69,and a downward trend after 70.The mortality showed an increasing trend between the ages of 15 to 74,and then a decreasing trend after the age of after 75.The results of period-effect analysis showed that from 1992 to 2021,the relative risk(RR)of ovarian cancer incidence risk in China showed an overall de-creasing trend.Taking the period from 2002 to 2006 as the reference group(RR=1.00),the incidence risk was the highest from 1997 to 2001(RR=1.09,95% CI:1.04-1.15).The period change of mortality risk for ovarian cancer showed a decreasing trend in RR values,with the reference group from 2002 to 2006(RR=1.00),and the highest mortality risk from 1992 to 1996(RR=1.15,95% CI:1.09-1.20).The results of cohort-effect analysis showed that people born later had a lower risk of occurring and dying from ovar-ian cancer.Conclusion Although the trend of standardized incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer in China decreased from 1992 to 2021,the trend of standardized incidence and standardized mortality of ovarian cancer increased from 2014 to 2021.The period effect shows that the risk of onset was highest from 1997 to 2001,and the risk of death was higher from 1992 to 1996.The cohort effect indicates that individuals born later are at a lower risk of occurring and dying from ovarian cancer.
