Analysis of risk factors and establishment of prediction model of acute pancreatitis complicated with hypotension
- VernacularTitle:急性胰腺炎并发低血压的危险因素分析及预测模型建立
- Author:
Dan DONG
1
;
Lijuan CHEN
1
;
Hehua YU
1
Author Information
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords: pancreatitis; hypotension; risk factors; nomograms; prediction model
- From: Tianjin Medical Journal 2025;53(5):509-513
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
- Abstract: Objective To investigate the risk factors of acute pancreatitis(AP)complicated with hypotension and establish a prediction model.Methods From April 2020 to April 2024,198 patients with AP in our hospital were selected as the research objects.The incidence of hypotension during treatment was measured.Patients with hypotension were included in the observation group,and those without hypotension were included in the control group.The risk factors of hypotension in AP patients were screened by Logistic regression analysis.R3.5.1 software was used to establish and verify the prediction model of AP complicated hypotension based on the selected risk factors.Results Among 198 AP patients during hospitalization,88(44.44%)had hypotension.Advanced age,history of hypotension,combined hypertension,severity of disease,secondary infection and respiratory system damage were the independent risk factors for AP complicated hypotension,and higher body mass index(BMI)was the protective factor(P＜0.05).The C-index of the nomogram prediction model was 0.899,and the AUC for predicting AP with hypotension was 0.899(95%CI:0.848-0.937).The sensitivity was 85.23%,the specificity was 83.64%,the Yoden index was 0.689,the Brier score of the calibration curve was 0.146 and the calibration slope was 0.735.The risk of AP complicated with hypotension predicted by the nomogram model was in good agreement with the actual risk.Conclusion The nomogram prediction model established based on influencing factors demonstrates good discrimination and applicability in predicting AP complicated with hypotension.
