Development and validation of a risk prediction model for subdelirium syndrome in adult ICU patients
10.3969/j.issn.1671-8283.2025.01.003
- VernacularTitle:ICU患者亚谵妄综合征风险预测模型的构建及验证
- Author:
Yaya SONG
1
;
Shumin JIANG
;
Shuling WANG
;
Yanjie ZHU
;
Tingting LIU
Author Information
1. 山东第一医科大学第一附属医院(山东省千佛山医院)护理部,山东 济南,250014
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
intensive care unit;
subdelirium syndrome;
prediction model
- From:
Modern Clinical Nursing
2025;24(1):16-23
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the risk factors of subdelirium syndrome in adult ICU patients,then establish a risk prediction model and have it verified.Method A total of 380 adult ICU patients in our hospital between June 2022 and January 2024 were selected in this study.Among the patients,224(70％)were assigned to the model group and 114(30％)to the validation group.Independent risk factors were screened by comparison of the general data,disease and treatment,laboratory indicators and other relevant data between the patients with and without subdelirium.A risk prediction model was established with Logistic regression.Results A risk prediction model was finalised and established.It composed six risk factors of age(OR=1.023),APACHE Ⅱ score(OR=1.093),critical care pain observation tool(OR=2.216),duration of mechanical ventilation(OR=1.003),constraint(OR=2.615)and sepsis(OR=2.081).In internal validation,it was found that the calibration curve closely overlapped with the ideal curve and the area under the ROC curve was 0.816,with a predictive cut off value of 85 points.In external validation,the calibration curve was found closely overlapped with the ideal curve and the area under ROC curve was 0.808.Conclusion The risk prediction model for subdelirium syndrome in adult ICU patients established in the study has good consistency and prediction efficiency,thereby it provides a basis for early clinical screening and intervention of subdelirium syndrome.
