Risk factors and prediction model for severe acute kidney injury in children with sepsis
10.3760/cma.j.cn431274-20250118-00082
- VernacularTitle:脓毒症患儿并发严重急性肾损伤的危险因素及预测模型
- Author:
Ping ZANG
1
;
Runfang CHEN
;
Wenjing CAI
;
Haipeng YAN
;
Xun LI
;
Zhenghui XIAO
;
Xiulan LU
Author Information
1. 中南大学湘雅医学院附属儿童医院（湖南省儿童医院）重症医学科，长沙 410007
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Sepsis;
Acute kidney injury;
Risk factor;
Predictive model;
Children
- From:
Journal of Chinese Physician
2025;27(7):983-988
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the risk factors for severe acute kidney injury (AKI) in children with sepsis in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) and construct a prediction model to assist early clinical identification.Methods:A retrospective analysis was performed on clinical data of 987 children with sepsis admitted to the PICU of Hunan Children′s Hospital from July 1, 2018 to January 31, 2021. Children who developed severe AKI during hospitalization were included in the AKI stage 2-3 group ( n=228), and the remaining were included in the No-AKI/AKI stage 1 group ( n=759). General information and biochemical indicators were compared between the two groups. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for severe AKI in children with sepsis, and a prediction model and nomogram were established. Results:The mortality rate in the AKI stage 2-3 group was 2.49 times that of the No-AKI/AKI stage 1 group [31.1%(71/228) vs 12.5%(95/759), P<0.05]. Compared with the No-AKI/AKI stage 1 group, the AKI stage 2-3 group had lower levels of platelet count (PLT), total protein (TP), albumin (ALB), antithrombin Ⅲ (AT3), and fibrinogen (FIB), but higher levels of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), serum creatinine (SCr), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), magnesium ion (Mg 2+ ), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), fibrinogen degradation products (FDP), and D-dimer (D-D) (all P<0.05), with no significant difference in total bile acid (TBAC) ( P>0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that decreased AT3 ( OR=0.989, 95% CI: 0.980-0.997, P=0.007), increased LDH ( OR=1.001, 95% CI: 1.000-1.001, P<0.001), increased SCr ( OR=1.051, 95% CI: 1.037-1.066, P<0.001), and increased BUN ( OR=1.099, 95% CI: 1.028-1.174, P=0.005) were risk factors for severe AKI in children with sepsis. The prediction model was Logist Pr=-3.184-0.012 X1+ 0.001 X2+ 0.050 X3+ 0.094 X4 ( X1=AT3, X2=LDH, X3=SCr, X4=BUN), with the optimal cut-off value of 0.374 (Youden index=0.560). A nomogram was constructed by binary assignment of predictive variables, with an area under the curve of 0.826 (95% CI: 0.790-0.861, P<0.001). Conclusions:The mortality rate of septic children with severe AKI in PICU is significantly increased. Decreased AT3, and increased LDH, SCr, and BUN are risk factors for severe AKI in children with sepsis. Clinicians should be alert to severe AKI when the predicted probability of the early warning model exceeds 0.374.
