Construction of a nomogram prediction model for post-treatment recurrence in children with hemangioma
10.16753/j.cnki.1008-2344.2025.03.009
- VernacularTitle:构建血管瘤患儿治疗后复发的列线图模型研究
- Author:
Junying HUANG
1
Author Information
1. 莆田学院附属医院小儿外科,福建 莆田 351100
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
hemangioma;
propranolol;
influencing factors;
nomogram prediction model
- From:
Journal of Shenyang Medical College
2025;27(3):282-287
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To investigate the influencing factors of post-treatment recurrence in children with hemangioma and construct a nomogram prediction model.Methods:A total of 280 children with hemangioma treated with propranolol in our hospital from May 2021 to May 2023 were enrolled and divided into the recurrence group(71 cases)and the non-recurrence group(209 cases)based on post-treatment outcomes.Multivariable logistic regression was performed to analyze the factors influencing the recurrence of hemangioma.R package 4.0'rms'was used to construct a nomogram model for predicting the recurrence.Calibration and decision curves were used to internally validate the nomogram model and evaluate the clinical prediction effectiveness.Results:Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that hemangioma type(OR=1.754,95%CI:1.102-3.565),medication dosage(OR=1.774,95%CI:1.132-4.993),treatment duration(OR=1.841,95%CI:1.142-5.845),age at initial medication(OR=1.695,95%CI:1.104-3.450),and age at treatment discontinuation(OR=1.889,95%CI:1.218-5.254)were independent risk factors of post-treatment recurrence of hemangioma among the children(P＜0.05).The calibration curve of the nomogram model closely aligned with the original and ideal curves,with a C-index of 0.810(0.746-0.873).The decision curve showed that the threshold value of the nomogram model was＞0.17,with high net clinical benefit for all of them,and was higher than the hemangioma type,medication dosage,treatment duration,age at initial medication,and age at treatment discontinuation.Conclusions:The factors affecting post-treatment recurrence in children with hemangiomas are hemangioma type,medication dosage,treatment duration,age at initial medication,and age at treatment discontinuation.A nomogram model constructed using these factors as predictors can help to predict and evaluate post-treatment recurrence in children with hemangiomas,enabling early intervention and improved prognosis.
