Analysis and prediction of disease burden of idiopathic epilepsy in China
10.3760/cma.j.cn115354-20250301-00111
- VernacularTitle:中国特发性癫痫的疾病负担分析与预测
- Author:
Xiaojun WANG
1
;
Chenwei LI
1
;
Jianglin RAN
1
;
Zhiheng FENG
1
;
Keke YANG
1
;
Huiyuan PENG
1
Author Information
1. 广州中医药大学附属中山中医院神经内科，中山 528400
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Idiopathic epilepsy;
Disease durden;
Incidence;
Prevalence;
Mortality;
Disability-adjusted life year;
Estimated annual percent change
- From:
Chinese Journal of Neuromedicine
2025;24(7):689-698
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To describe the temporal trend of disease burden of idiopathic epilepsy in China from 1990 to 2021 and predict the incidence of idiopathic epilepsy in China from 2022 to 2035 to provide references for the formulation of relevant health policies and measures.Methods:Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database regarding idiopathic epilepsy in China, changes in disease burden from 1990 to 2021 were acquired. Disease burden was quantified using age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) and their 95% uncertain interval (UI). Temporal trend analysis was performed using a linear regression model to estimate the estimated annual percent change (EAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) in incidence of idiopathic epilepsy and their 95% CI. Additionally, incidence and number of patients with idiopathic epilepsy in China from 2022 to 2035 were predicted using Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Results:The ASIR of idiopathic epilepsy increased from 22.35 per 100,000 population in 1990 (95% UI: 15.04-30.92 per 100,000 population) to 28.19 per 100,000 population in 2021 (95% UI: 19.03-37.89 per 100,000 population), with an EAPC of 0.12% (95% CI: -0.10%-0.34%); ASPR of idiopathic epilepsy increased from 189.27 per 100,000 population in 1990 (95% UI: 132.48-252.95 per 100,000 population) to 214.71 per 100,000 population in 2021 (95% UI: 150.10-278.56 per 100,000 population), with an EAPC of -0.32% (95% CI: -0.57%-0.06%); ASMR of idiopathic epilepsy decreased from 1.86 per 100,000 population in 1990 (95% UI: 1.59-2.24 per 100,000 population) to 0.80 per 100,000 population in 2021 (95% UI: 0.67-1.00 per 100,000 population), with an EAPC of -2.96% (95% CI: -3.09%-2.82%); ASDR of idiopathic epilepsy decreased from 178.60 per 100,000 population in 1990 (95% UI: 143.44-220.63 per 100,000 population) to 101.39 per 100,000 population in 2021 (95% UI: 72.51-139.40 per 100,000 population), with an EAPC of -2.38% (95% CI: -2.54%-2.22%). The prediction model showed that by 2035, the prevalence of idiopathic epilepsy in China will be 28.27 per 100,000 (95% CI: 23.19-38.66), with an estimated 394,928 incident cases (95% CI: 324,037-540,128). Conclusions:From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR and ASPR of idiopathic epilepsy in China show an upward trend, while the ASMR and ASDR hace a decline trend. Incidence of idiopathic epilepsy in China is expected to remain stable over the next decade.
