Spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of an animal plague epidemic in marmot foci in the Qilian-Altun Mountains of Gansu Province,2014-2023
10.3969/j.issn.1002-2694.2025.00.099
- VernacularTitle:2014-2023年甘肃省祁连山-阿尔金山旱獭疫源地动物鼠疫流行时空分布特征分析
- Author:
Ding-sheng WANG
1
;
Xiao-jie ZHOU
;
Wen-jing AN
;
Jin-xiao XI
;
Da-qin XU
;
Li-min GUO
Author Information
1. 甘肃省疾病预防控制中心鼠疫防制科,兰州 730020
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
animal plague;
epidemiological characteristics;
spatial-temporal distribution
- From:
Chinese Journal of Zoonoses
2025;41(6):668-674
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
This study was analyzed the spatial-temporal distribution and aggregation characteristics of Yersinia pestispositive host animals and vector pathogens in marmot natural foci in the Qilian-Altun mountains,Gansu Province,to provide a scientific basis for precise plague prevention and control.Y.pestissurveillance data for marmot natural foci in Qilian-Altun Mountains of Gansu Province from 2014 to 2023 were obtained from the Disease Control and Prevention Center of Gansu Province.Origin 2024 software was used for data visualization and presentation.Global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses and trend analyses were conducted in ArcGIS 10.8 software,with townships as the spatial scale.Cumulatively,440 strains of Y.pestis were isolated from the natural marmot foci in the Qilian-Altun mountainsof Gansu Province from 2014 to 2023.Most strains was isolated from marmots(345 strains,78.41%),and the remainder were isolated from vectors.Temporal distribution analysis indicated that the highest number of detected bacteria was reported in July and August(both 121 strains,27.50%).Regional distribution analysis revealed that Aksai County reported the highest number of detected bacteria(255 strains,57.95%).Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed a spatially clustered distribution of the number of bacteria detected annually in the townships containing natural foci,except in2014,2016,and 2021-2023.The strongest spatial clustering was observed in 2020(Moran's I=0.521 2,Z=14.397 0,P<0.001).Local spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated a"high-high"aggregation area in the natural foci every year from 2014 to 2023,primarily in Hongliuwan Town of Aksai County and Dangchengwan Town of Subei County.The distribution of the"low-low"aggregation area was essentially consistent with the low activity area of the Yersinia pestisepidemic.The trend in annual total bacterial count gradually increased from east to west,and peaked in the western part of the epidemic focus.Clear spatial aggregation characteristics of the number of Y.pestis were detected in the marmot natural foci in the Qilian-Altun mountains at the townshiplevel as a whole in Gansu Province from 2014 to 2023.The aggregation area was mainly in the western section of Qilian Mountain to the Altun mountain section of the epidemic source area.Monitoring and prevention and control efforts should be focused in this key area,with prevention and control measures tailored to the local conditions,and classified guidance to decrease the risk of plague occurrence and spread.
