The predictive analysis of dementia incidence, prevalence, and mortality in China from 2020 to 2040
10.3760/cma.j.cn113661-20240520-00154
- VernacularTitle:2020—2040年中国痴呆的发病、患病及死亡情况预测分析
- Author:
Shihong WANG
1
;
Yanfang HUANG
1
;
Rudai CAO
1
;
Weikai ZHANG
1
;
Wenlong HUANG
1
;
Danli KONG
1
;
Yuanlin DING
1
;
Haibing YU
1
Author Information
1. 广东医科大学公共卫生学院，东莞 523808
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Dementia;
Disease prediction;
Prophet model;
China;
Incidence;
Prevalence;
Mortality
- From:
Chinese Journal of Psychiatry
2024;57(10):653-660
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To predict the incidence, prevalence, and mortality of dementia in China from 2020 to 2040.Methods:The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), incidence number, age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), prevalence number, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and death number of dementia in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) database. We used the overall change rate and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to describe the epidemic situation of dementia and compared the trend of dementia between genders. A T-test was used to determine whether EAPC was statistically significant. Every five years, we divided the age into 17 groups to analyze the incidence, prevalence, and mortality of dementia. The prophet model predicted ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, incidence, prevalence, and death from dementia in China from 2020 to 2040.Results:The ASIR, ASPR, and ASMR of dementia showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2019, with an average annual increase of 0.33%, 0.66%, and 0.15% ( t=10.13, 14.49 and 3.62, all P<0.05). The ASIR, ASPR, and ASMR in males increased faster annually than in females. In 2019, the number of incidence, prevalence, and death from dementia in groups aged≥80 years was the highest among all age groups (685 057 cases, 5 772 861 cases, and 217 827 cases). Prediction results of the prophet model showed that the ASIR, ASPR, and ASMR of dementia were further increased in China from 2020 to 2040, with an average annual increase of 0.55%, 0.78%, and 0.06% ( t=177.63, 161.21, and 7.91, all P<0.05). In 2040, the ASIR, ASPR, and ASMR will reach 117.72/10 5, 940.98/10 5, and 23.64/10 5, respectively. In addition, the number of incidence, prevalence, and death from dementia will show an upward trend from 2020 to 2040. In 2040, the incidence, prevalence, and death will reach 3 334 770 cases, 25 303 146 cases, and 590 138 cases, respectively. Conclusion:From 2020 to 2040, the ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, number of incident cases, number of prevalent cases, and number of deaths due to dementia in China will continue to grow.
