Construction of risk prediction model and nomogram of shivering during cesarean section
10.3969/j.issn.1673-9701.2025.10.002
- VernacularTitle:剖宫产术中寒战风险预测模型及列线图的构建
- Author:
Xin HU
1
;
Yuanyuan XIA
1
;
Youyou LIN
1
Author Information
1. 温州医科大学附属第二医院手术室,浙江温州 325000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Cesarean section;
Shivering;
Prediction model;
State anxiety inventory score
- From:
China Modern Doctor
2025;63(10):6-10,15
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective The risk prediction model of shivering during cesarean section was constructed and its prediction effect was verified.Methods A total of 225 parturient women who underwent cesarean section in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University from January to April 2023 were selected as study objects.According to whether shivering occurred during the operation,they were divided into shivering group(101 cases)and non-shivering group(124 cases).Multivariate Logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors and build a nomogram prediction model.Results The parity and proportion of intraoperative warming measures in shivering group were significantly lower than those in non-shivering group,and the proportion of diabetes,globulin,state anxiety inventory(S-AI)score and trait anxiety inventory score were significantly higher than those in non-shivering group,and post-anesthesia body temperature decrease was significantly greater than that in non-shivering group(P＜0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis revealed that diabetes history,S-AI score,anesthesia method,post-anesthesia body temperature decrease,and intraoperative warming measures were all influencing factors of shivering during cesarean section(P＜0.05).The area under the curve(AUC)of the constructed prediction model for predicting shivering during cesarean section was 0.831,and the maximum AUC obtained by ten-fold internal cross-validation was 0.934,suggesting that the model had good fitting effect and differential validity.Conclusion The model can predict the risk of parturient shivering during cesarean section,and provide reference for medical personnel to take preventive management measures for high-risk puerperal shivering in time.
