Analysis of Survival Rate of Breast Cancer from 1972 to 2019 and Prediction for Next 10 Years in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province
10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.04.A008
- VernacularTitle:江苏省启东市48年乳腺癌生存率分析和未来10年趋势预测
- Author:
Junlei WANG
1
;
Jun WANG
;
Yongsheng CHEN
;
Yuanyou XU
;
Lulu DING
;
Yonghui ZHANG
;
Jianguo CHEN
;
Jian ZHU
;
Qichao NI
Author Information
1. 南通大学附属医院,南通大学医学院,江苏南通 226001;启东市人民医院/启东肝癌防治研究所/南通大学附属启东医院,江苏启东 226200
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
breast cancer;
cancer registration;
survival;
trends;
Jiangsu
- From:
China Cancer
2025;34(4):304-310
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
[Purpose]To analyze the survival rate of breast cancer in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2019 and to predict the trend in the next 10 years.[Methods]The data of breast cancer collected from Qidong Cancer Registry from 1972 to 2019 were extracted.Observed survival rate(OSR),relative survival rate(RSR),age-adjusted relative survival(ARS)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)of breast cancer were calculated.ARIMA model was used to predict the trend of breast cancer survival rate.[Results]The 5-year RSR increased from 57.30％during 1972-1977 to 89.01％during 2014-2019,and the uptrend of RSR in the 8 periods was statistically significant(P＜0.001).The 5-year ARS increased from 48.12％during 1972-1977 to 85.64％during 2014-2019 with an AAPC of 1.85％(t=10.113,P＜0.001).The 5-year RSR during 1972-2019 for males was 85.22％,and for females was 74.51％.For females,the 5-year RSR in-creased from 56.44％during 1972-1977 to 88.93％during 2014-2019 with an AAPC of 1.29％(t=13.087,P＜0.001),and the 5-year ARS increased from 46.14％during 1972-1977 to 85.23％during 2014-2019 with an AAPC of 1.90％(t=10.369,P＜0.001).The 5-year RSR in the age groups of 25～34,35～44,45～54,55～64,65～74,and over 75 years old were 66.91％,74.69％,76.97％,75.52％,73.44％and 66.40％,respectively;the corresponding AAPCs of 5-RSR in above age groups were 1.02％(t=3.816,P=0.009),1.03％(t=4.936,P=0.003),1.23％(t=5.826,P=0.001),1.86％(t=5.997,P=0.001),2.13％(t=10.245,P＜0.001),and 1.44％(t=6.405,P=0.001),respectively.ARIMA modeling of survival trend prediction showed that 5-RSR and 5-ARS for breast cancer will be ascended to 98.76％and 98.33％by 2028,respectively.[Conclusion]The overall survival rate of registered breast cancer cases in Qidong City has been greatly improved and will be further improved in the future,more attention should be paid to the prevention and treatment of breast cancer.
