Nomogram prediction model of cerebral vasospasm risk after interventional embolization of elderly intracranial aneurysms
10.3969/j.issn.1009-0126.2025.04.020
- VernacularTitle:老年颅内动脉瘤介入栓塞治疗后脑血管痉挛风险预测模型的构建
- Author:
Haiyan WU
1
;
Mo XIANG
1
;
Chantong LIAO
1
;
Shuijie CHEN
1
;
Huiqian WANG
1
Author Information
1. 570311 海口,海南省人民医院(海南医科大学附属海南医院)神经外科
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
intracranial aneurysm;
vasospasm,intracranial;
nomograms;
logistic models
- From:
Chinese Journal of Geriatric Heart Brain and Vessel Diseases
2025;27(4):488-492
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the factors affecting cerebral vasospasm in elderly patients af-ter interventional embolization of intracranial aneurysms,and to develop a nomogram prediction model.Methods A total of 307 elderly patients with intracranial aneurysms who underwent inter-ventional embolization in our hospital from May 2021 to May 2023 were recruited,and according to the occurrence of postoperative cerebral vasospasm or not,they were divided into a cerebral vasospasm group(n=63)and a non-cerebral vasospasm group(n=244).The general clinical data were compared between two groups.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify the risk factors for postoperative cerebral vasospasm in elderly patients with in-tracranial aneurysms,and then a nomogram prediction model was constructed.Results There were significant differences between the two groups in terms of age,Hunt-Hess grade,Fisher grade,and time window for surgical treatment(P＜0.01).The cerebral vasospasm group had sig-nificantly higher WBC count and IL-1β and Caspase-3 levels than the non-cerebral vasospasm group(P＜0.01).Univariate logistics regression analysis showed that seven indicators,that is,aged≥65 years,Hunt-Hess grade Ⅲ-Ⅵ,Fisher grade Ⅲ-Ⅵ,later surgical start time and in-creased WBC count and IL-1β and Caspase-3 levels were risk factors for postoperative cerebral vasospasm(P＜0.05).Multivariate logistics regression analysis indicated that above seven indica-tors were still independent risk factors for postoperative cerebral vasospasm(OR=11.372,95％CI:4.032-32.073,P=0.000;OR=12.415,95％CI:4.979-30.959,P=0.000;OR=9.568,95％CI:3.945-23.206,P=0.000;OR=2.898,95％CI:1.217-6.901,P=0.016;OR=1.762,95％CI:1.125-2.761,P=0.013;OR=1.153,95％CI:1.035-1.283,P=0.009).ROC curve analysis re-vealed that the AUC value of the nomogram model in predicting postoperative cerebral vasospasm was 0.934,with a sensitivity of 85.40％and a specificity of 90.50％.Conclusion Aged≥65 years,Hunt-Hess grade Ⅲ-Ⅵ,Fisher grade Ⅲ-Ⅵ,later surgical start time and increased WBC count and IL-1β and Caspase-3 levels have adverse effects on postoperative cerebral vasospasm in in eld-erly patients after interventional embolization of intracranial aneurysms.The nomogram model based on these factors shows certain efficacy in evaluating the occurrence of cerebral vasospasm.
