Application of ARIMA in prediction of prevalence trend of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae in ICU
10.11816/cn.ni.2025-248374
- VernacularTitle:基于ARIMA模型预测ICU耐碳青霉烯类肺炎克雷伯菌流行趋势
- Author:
Shifan JIANG
1
;
Yingjie ZHANG
;
Juan LU
;
Jin CHENG
;
Cejie LAN
;
Xing WU
Author Information
1. 江南大学附属医院感染管理处,江苏无锡 214122
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae;
Autoregressive integrated moving average model;
In-tensive care unit;
Prediction;
Prevalence trend
- From:
Chinese Journal of Nosocomiology
2025;35(6):933-938
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
OBJECTIVE To explore the application of autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)in prediction of prevalence trends of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae(CRKP)in intensive care unit(ICU)so as to provide scientific bases for formulating prevention strategies for CRKP infection in ICU.METHODS The number of CRKP strains that were monthly isolated from the ICU patients of Jiangnan University Affiliated Hospital between Jan.2021 and Jan.2024 was collected,the duplicate samples from the same patient were excluded,and totally 555 strains of CRKP were finally enrolled in the study.The time series differencing was performed by using R statistical software,the ARIMA model was established,the parameters of the model were determined by means of autocorrelation function(ACF)and partial autocorrelation function(PACF)images.The optimal model was screened out by Akaike information criterion(AIC)and root-mean-square error(RMSD),the robustness of the residual sequences was assessed by Box-Ljung test.The data that were detected from Sep.2023 to Jan.2024 were assigned as the validation set,the prediction accuracy of the model was assessed,and the dy-namic trend of the CRKP strains from Feb.2024 to Apr.2024 was predicted.RESULTS The isolation rate of CRKP strains in ICU showed dynamic change from 2021 to 2023(x2=66.906,P=0.001),sputum and midstream urine were the major sources.The minimal AIC of the optimal ARIMA model(8,1,10)was 222.1,with RMSE 3.67.Box-Ljung(x2=0.104,P=0.746)test indicated that there was no autocorrelation among the residual se-quences.Both the actual CRKP and the predictive value firstly rose then descended from Sep.2023 to Jan.2024,and the average relative error of the model was 9.62％for prediction.The number of isolated CRKP strains predic-ted by the model might reached to the lowest point in Feb.2024 and then showed an upward trend,and it might reach to a high peak in Apr.CONCLUSION ARIMA model is effective for short-term prediction and dynamic anal-ysis of prevalence trend of CRKP strains in the ICU so as to provide theoretical basis for early warning of hospital-associated infection and take corresponding prevention measures.
