Constructing a risk prediction model for the failure of arteriovenous fistula formation in patients with CKD stage 5
10.3969/j.issn.1673-9701.2025.12.009
- VernacularTitle:CKD 5期患者动静脉瘘成形术失败风险预测模型构建
- Author:
Mingzhe WANG
1
Author Information
1. 福州市第一总医院肾内科,福建 福州 350009
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Chronic kidney disease stage 5;
Arteriovenous fistula;
Surgical failure;
Mean platelet volume;
Column chart
- From:
China Modern Doctor
2025;63(12):40-43
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the construction of a risk prediction model for arteriovenous fistula(AVF)formation failure in patients with chronic kidney disease(CKD)stage 5 based on multiple factor analysis.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the data of 278 CKD stage 5 patients who underwent hemodialysis at Fuzhou First General Hospital from July 2022 to July 2024.According to the occurrence of AVF failure,they were divided into surgical success group(n=251)and surgical failure group(n=27).Compare two sets of baseline data,analyze the risk factors affecting the failure of AVF formation,and construct a risk prediction column chart model based on the relevant factors obtained.Results By comparing the data of two groups,it was found that the arterial diameter,venous diameter,serum albumin,and hemoglobin in surgical success group were all higher than those in surgical failure group(P＜0.05);while the mean platelet volume(MPV)in surgical success group was lower than that in surgical failure group(P＜0.05).Constructing Logistic regression model showed arterial diameter,venous diameter,serum albumin,and MPV were all influencing factors for surgical failure in CKD stage 5 patients(P＜0.05).Based on the influencing factors obtained from regression analysis,a column chart risk prediction model was constructed,and the Bootstrap method was used for internal validation of the model.The fit between the internal calibration curve and the ideal curve was good,and the receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the overall predicted area under the curve of the model was 0.887,indicating good accuracy in model evaluation.Conclusion The vascular inner diameter,serum albumin,and MPV are influencing factors for the risk of AVF failure in CKD stage 5 patients.The column chart model established based on this has a good predictive effect on the risk of surgical failure in patients.
