Analysis of risk factors and Nomogram construction for NAFLD in obese children
10.3969/j.issn.1673-9701.2025.29.003
- VernacularTitle:肥胖儿童NAFLD危险因素分析及列线图构建
- Author:
Shujuan ZHANG
1
;
Yanfei TANG
;
Feng ZHU
;
Yiqun TENG
;
Hongwei XU
Author Information
1. 嘉兴市第二医院儿科,浙江嘉兴 314000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Obese children;
Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease;
Triglyceride-glucose index;
Nomogram
- From:
China Modern Doctor
2025;63(29):10-14,22
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the risk factors of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)in obese children,and evaluate the diagnostic value of each index for NAFLD and establish a Nomogram prediction model.Methods A total of 207 obese children admitted at Department of Pediatrics the Second Hospital of Jiaxing from January 2022 to January 2025 were selected.These children were divided into two groups based on NAFLD diagnosis:non-NAFLD group(n=99)and NAFLD group(n=108).Differences in gender,age,body mass index(BMI),and related metabolic indicators were compared between two groups.Logistic regression was employed to analyze potential risk factors for NAFLD development,while receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and Nomograms were used to evaluate the predictive value of different factors for NAFLD.Results ROC curve analysis demonstrated diagnostic value for NAFLD in triglyceride-glucose index(TyG),triglyceride-to-cholesterol ratio,TyG-waist circumference,and TyG-BMI.Among these,the area under the curve(AUC)of TyG showed the highest value of 0.713,with an optimal cutoff of 8.189,sensitivity of 50.5％and specificity of 83.3％.Univariate Logistic regression analysis revealed multiple insulin resistance indicators associated with NAFLD development.Multivariate analysis identified homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance(HOMA-IR)and TyG as independent risk factors,with TyG showing the best predictive value(OR=3.038 95％CI:1.089-8.475,P＜0.05).The constructed Nomogram prediction model demonstrated strong comprehensive discriminant capability(AUC=0.742).Conclusion The Nomogram model based on HOMA-IR,TyG and its derived indexes has certain clinical application value in the screening of NAFLD in children.
