Trends and future predictions of the burden of tracheal,bronchus,and lung cancer at-tributed to secondhand smoke in China from 1990 to 2021
10.12354/j.issn.1000-8179.2025.20250651
- VernacularTitle:1990年至2021年中国归因于二手烟的气管、支气管和肺癌疾病负担趋势及未来预测分析
- Author:
Li FU
1
;
Hu SHOUCAI
;
Long HAI
;
Hu GAWEI
;
Liu BIN
;
Zhang YANAN
;
Ma HAOTIAN
;
Yao WEIQING
;
Li QINGXIN
Author Information
1. 中国人民解放军联勤保障部队第九四〇医院高原医学科(兰州市 730000);甘肃中医药大学第一临床医学院;中国人民解放军联勤保障部队第九四〇医院普胸外科
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
secondhand smoke;
tracheal,bronchus and lung cancer(TBL);
burden of disease;
Joinpoint regression model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Clinical Oncology
2025;52(16):834-842
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To integrate and analyze the trend of the disease burden of tracheal,bronchus,and lung cancer(TBL)attributable to secondhand smoke in China from 1990 to 2021 and to analyze future projections,aiming to provide data support for the prevention and treatment of TBL in China.Methods:Based on the global burden of disease(GBD)2021 database,TBL with ICD-10 disease classification C33,C34-C34.92 was studied.Using secondhand smoke as a risk factor,the data on TBL mortality and disability-adjusted life year(DALY)due to secondhand smoke in China from 1990 to 2021 were further age-standardized.Using Joinpoint 4.7.1 regression analysis model to calculate annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC),Hiplot software was used to plot disease burden data for different ages and genders,and R 4.3.1 software was used to construct a grey model GM(1,1)to predict the predicted value and trend of TBL disease burden attributed to secondhand smoke in China from 2022 to 2031.Results:From 1990 to 2021,the TBL mortality rate,age-standardized mortality rate,and DALY rate attributed to secondhand smoke in China increased from 1.76/100 000,2.63/100 000,and 49.43/100 000 to 4.08/100 000,2.80/100 000,and 95.57/100 000,respectively;the growth was 131.18%,6.45%,and 93.34%;the age-standardized DALY rate decreased from 65.04/100 000 to 63.32/100 000 with the reduction of 2.65%.The results of the Joinpoint regres-sion showed that the AAPC(95%CI)of mortality,age-standardized mortality rate,and DALY rate for TBL were 2.75(2.58-2.93)%,0.16(0.11-0.21)%,and 2.15(2.11-2.18)%,respectively,with an overall increasing trend;the AAPC(95%CI)of age-standardized DALY rate was-0.14(-0.40-0.12)%,with an overall fluctuating and unchanged trend and it was higher in males than in females.In both 1990 and 2021,the TBL mortality rate attributable to secondhand smoke in China gradually increased with age,and the DALY rate first increased and then slowed down with age.The main groups of the burden of disease were the elderly and males.The grey prediction model GM(1,1)showed that the age-standardized mortality rate of TBL attributable to secondhand smoke from 2022 to 2031 showed a slow increasing trend,and the predicted value in 2031 would increase to 2.95/100 000.The age-standardized DALY showed a slow decreasing trend,and the predicted value in 2031 would decrease to 63.83/100 000.Conclusions:From 1990 to 2021,the TBL mortality,age-standardized mortality,and DALY rates attributable to secondhand smoke in China increased,and the age-standardized DALY rate decreased.Men and the elderly are the main groups affected by TBL.Appropriate measures should be formulated to reduce exposure to and contact with secondhand smoke,tak-ing into account gender and age differences.Additionally,efforts should be made to strengthen secondhand smoke prevention and public health education.
