Monitoring and model prediction of human brucellosis in Tangshan City, Hebei Province from 2016 to 2024
10.3760/cma.j.cn311365-20250325-00086
- VernacularTitle:2016年至2024年河北省唐山市人间布鲁菌病监测分析及模型预测
- Author:
Xiangbo LIU
1
;
Wen GAO
;
Renjie E
;
Ling ZHANG
;
Guangyue XIE
;
Jie PEI
;
Hui WANG
;
Zheng LIU
;
Hongli LIU
Author Information
1. 唐山市疾病预防控制中心传染病防制所，唐山 063016
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Brucellosis;
Human world;
Epidemiological characteristics;
Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model;
SARIMA model;
Time series
- From:
Chinese Journal of Infectious Diseases
2025;43(4):232-238
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of human brucellosis in Tangshan City, Hebei Province from 2016 to 2024, and to establish a prediction model for forecasting incidence of human brucellosis in Tangshan City from 2025 to 2028, so that to provide evidence for prevention and control strategies.Methods:The incidence data of human brucellosis in Tangshan City from 2016 to 2024 were collected. Brucella strains isolated from blood cultures of patients with acute brucellosis were identified.The onset time and demographic distributions of brucellosis were analyzed using descriptive epidemiological methods. Chi-square test was used for statistical analysis. Python software was used to establish a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA model) and predict the incidence of brucellosis in Tangshan City from 2025 to 2028. Results:From 2016 to 2024, a total of 2 446 cases of human brucellosis in Tangshan City were reported, with the highest incidence in 2016 (378 cases) and the lowest in 2022 (277 cases).Seasonal variation was observed, with 54.87%(1 342/2 446) occurring in spring and summer (March to July). The incidence rate of male was 5.28/100 000, which was significantly higher than that of female (1.94/100 000) ( χ2=554.96, P<0.001). The cases spanned all age groups, with the highest incidence among those aged 50 to 59 (30.25%(740/2 446)). Farmers engaged in cattle/sheep breeding accounting for 85.73% (2 097/2 446) of cases. A total of 236 blood samples were collected from patients with acute brucellosis, and 12 Brucella strains were isolated and identified as sheep type Ⅲ Brucella. The optimal model constructed was SARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 0, 1) 12, which was used to predict the incidence of human brucellosis in Tangshan City from 2025 to 2028. The results showed that the overall incidence was relatively stable, retaining the characteristic single annual peak. Conclusions:Human brucellosis in Tangshan City peaks in spring/summer and predominantly affects cattle/sheep farmers. The SARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 0, 1) 12 model effectively fits the epidemiological data of human brucellosis in Tangshan City well and enables reliable future trend predictions, supporting scientific and effective prevention and control work.
