Change trend and prediction of congenital heart disease burden in China from 1990 to 2021
10.3760/cma.j.cn112434-20240731-00186
- VernacularTitle:1990至2021年中国先天性心脏病负担变化趋势及预测研究
- Author:
Zihao BAI
1
;
Hao WANG
;
Jia AN
;
Qiang WANG
;
Yang WANG
;
Xuming MO
Author Information
1. 南京大学医学院教学医院南京市儿童医院心胸外科，南京 210000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Congenital heart disease;
Disease burden;
Disability-adjusted life years;
Epidemiology;
Trend
- From:
Chinese Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery
2025;41(3):156-162
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To summarize and evaluate the temporal trends of the burden of congenital heart disease (CHD) in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the burden of the disease up to 2035.Methods:The Joinpoint regression method was used to study the time trend of congenital heart disease, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort method (BAPC) was used to predict the change in disease burden due to congenital heart disease in China and globally between 2022 and 2035. Results:From 1990 to 2021, the disability-adjusted life years and mortality burdens of congenital heart disease have decreased in China and globally. Although the disease burden is higher in men than in women, the difference is gradually decreasing. BAPC estimates that the burden of congenital heart disease is expected to continue to decline in China and globally in 2022-2035, but congenital heart disease remains a major health problem. China has made remarkable progress in reducing the burden of congenital heart disease, which reflects the positive impact of rapid advances in medical technology and improved public health policies.Conclusion:Although congenital heart disease will remain a significant disease burden over the past three decades and into 2035, it is critical to focus on disease-specific differences to develop more targeted interventions to further reduce the disease burden of congenital heart disease and improve the quality of life and living standards of patients.
