Prediction of development trends and spatial distribution of traditional Chinese medicine hospitals in China
10.3760/cma.j.cn111325-20240703-00553
- VernacularTitle:我国中医医院发展趋势预测及空间分布研究
- Author:
Minghui GENG
1
;
Jinping LUO
1
;
Jiaying SUN
1
;
Yifan MOU
1
;
Baoxuan ZHANG
1
;
Wenqiang YIN
1
;
Zhongming CHEN
1
;
Dongping MA
1
Author Information
1. 山东第二医科大学管理学院，潍坊 261053
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Development trend;
Traditional Chinese medicine hospitals;
Grey prediction model;
Spatial autocorrelation analysis;
Local hotspot analysis
- From:
Chinese Journal of Hospital Administration
2025;41(1):21-26
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the current development status and spatial distribution characteristics of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) hospitals in China, predict the changing trends of the number of TCM hospitals, the number of beds, and the number of physicians, and provide references for the development of TCM hospitals and the formulation of related policies.Methods:From the official websites of the National Bureau of Statistics and the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine, the total population and number of TCM hospitals of 31 provinces (excluding China′s Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) in China from 2013 to 2022 were included, as well as the number of beds and practicing (assistant) physicians in TCM hospitals from 2013 to 2021. The grey prediction model was applied to predict the changing trends of the number of TCM hospitals, beds and physicians. Using the global Moran′s I index in spatial autocorrelation analysis, the distribution of TCM hospitals per 10 000 people in China was analyzed by spatial correlation analysis, and local G coefficient was analyzed by local hot spots.Results:From 2013 to 2027, the number of TCM hospitals, beds and practicing (assistant) TCM physicians in China all showed an increasing trend year by year. The number of TCM hospitals per 10 000 people in China showed a spatial correlation between 2013 and 2022 ( P<0.05). The hot spots of TCM hospitals were mainly concentrated in North China and Northeast China, while the cold spots were mainly concentrated in southeast coastal areas and Northwest China. Conclusions:The number of TCM hospitals in China is increasing year by year, but it is necessary to control the reasonable increase and avoid blind expansion. It is necessary to formulate regional policies of TCM hospitals according to local conditions and pay attention to the individuation of policies. Focus on hot and cold areas to promote balanced development of TCM hospitals.
